PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 10:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariUdinese
Shots10 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals1.59 xG/match▲0.75 xG/match
Possession44%56%●
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls12 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAxel Guessand · Udinese · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFesty Ebosele · Udinese · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriele Zappa · Cagliari · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFesty Ebosele · Udinese · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Udinese · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristian Kabasele · Udinese · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Udinese · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Lucca · Udinese · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Lucca · Udinese · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNehuén Pérez · Udinese · 19′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 42′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJaka Bijol · Udinese · 55′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Lucca · Udinese · 79′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 45′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 49′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 67′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 12′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.39 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 10 shots, 1 on target, 1.60 xG. Udinese: 11 shots, 1 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 1.60 xG · Udinese 0.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Udinese have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Cagliari show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Cagliari's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.25 shots/match▲ShotsCagliari · Udinese13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCagliariUdineseBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match10 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Udinese have recorded the higher season possession share.

37%PossessionCagliari · Udinese●48.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCagliariUdineseBaseline
Possession37%48.8%49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari
0Draws
2Udinese
Udinese — Cagliari · Serie A5–1
Cagliari — Udinese · Serie A0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Udinese in 0 · 13 too close

0.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/40.25 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/41 goals/match
0.78 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 4/41.02 xG/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 4/41.41 xG/match
9.25 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/413.8 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/410 shots/match
1.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/44.5 shots/match
3.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/42.75 shots/match
37%Possessionseason · 4/4●48.8%
3.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/4●5.25 corners/match
6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/44.75 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/414 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/450%
25%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/425%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari7.5
Udinese40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari11.7
Udinese45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari65.8
Udinese81.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari47.5
Udinese62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari32.5
Udinese92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari20
Udinese60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari19.4
Udinese69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cagliari4 matchesUdinese4 matches
0.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/40.25 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/41 goals/match
0.78 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.02 xG/match
9.25 shots/matchShots4/4▲13.8 shots/match
1.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4.5 shots/match
37%Possession4/4●48.8%
3.25 corners/matchCorners4/4●5.25 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls4/414 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cagliari2 matchesUdinese2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals2/2—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards0/0—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Sept 2023, 14:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariUdinese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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