PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 22 Oct 2023, 18:45 UTCFull timeHistorical match

Milan

LWWWW
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMilanJuventus
Shots7 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.31 xG/match1.43 xG/match▲
Possession52%●48%
Corners6 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Filip Kostić · Juventus · 23′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · Juventus · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Florenzi · Milan · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Calabria · Milan · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · Juventus · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Gatti · Juventus · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · Milan · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Juventus · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedArkadiusz Milik · Juventus · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Giroud · Milan · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAndrea Cambiaso · Juventus · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedManuel Locatelli · Juventus · 78′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedWeston McKennie · Juventus · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Juventus · 45′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 90′ · 0.42 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.31 xG. Juventus: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.41 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.31 xG · Juventus 1.41 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Milan
2Draws
0Juventus
Juventus — Milan · Serie A0–1
Milan — Juventus · Serie A2–0
Milan — Juventus · Serie A0–0
Juventus — Milan · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Juventus in 7 · 4 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.67 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.54 xG/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.69 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/9▲13.8 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲11.4 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/94.33 shots/match
3.56 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲2.78 shots/match
56.1%●Possessionseason · 9/950%
3.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/9●4.78 corners/match
2.78 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/94.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/911.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/9▲67%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/989%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan87.5
Juventus52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan60
Juventus69.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan65
Juventus83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan12.5
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan45
Juventus55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan22.5
Juventus52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan42.5
Juventus61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan9 matchesJuventus9 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.67 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.67 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.54 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots9/9▲13.8 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/94.33 shots/match
56.1%●Possession9/950%
3.89 corners/matchCorners9/9●4.78 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/911.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan4 matchesJuventus5 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/51.6 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/50.8 goals/match
1.63 xG/match▲Expected goals4/51.46 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots4/512.2 shots/match
4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/53.6 shots/match
53.8%●Possession4/551%
4.25 corners/match●Corners4/53.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13 fouls/matchFouls4/510.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Oct 2023, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMilanJuventus
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headMilan — Juventus
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Milan 0–1 Juventus — Serie A 2023/24 Match Stats | PitchMath