PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Mon, 27 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bologna

DWDWL
2–0Full-time recap

Torino

LLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaTorino
Shots13 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.55 xG/match▲0.45 xG/match
Possession49%51%●
Corners3 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Giovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Ilić · Torino · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · Bologna · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Ilić · Torino · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Ilić · Torino · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Buongiorno · Torino · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 54′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedStefan Posch · Bologna · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGvidas Gineitis · Torino · 90′ · 0.08 xG · on targetSam Beukema · Bologna · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 54′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 35′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 90′ · 0.18 xG · goalGiovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 56′ · 0.63 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bologna: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.51 xG. Torino: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Giovanni Fabbian · Bologna · 56′Joshua Zirkzee · Bologna · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 1.51 xG · Torino 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bologna
1Draws
2Torino
Torino — Bologna · Serie A1–0
Bologna — Torino · Serie A2–1
Bologna — Torino · Serie A0–0
Torino — Bologna · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Torino in 1 · 3 too close

1.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/130.77 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.23 goals/match
1.2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 13/130.93 xG/match
0.91 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 13/131.14 xG/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 13/1310.5 shots/match
11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1310.8 shots/match
4.46 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 13/133.08 shots/match
3.46 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/133.69 shots/match
53.6%●Possessionseason · 13/1350.8%
3.62 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●3.92 corners/match
4.69 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲2.62 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1311.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1338%
69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1354%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna67.5
Torino47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna51.7
Torino12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna76.7
Torino60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna7.5
Torino2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna57.5
Torino47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna17.5
Torino22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna45
Torino21.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bologna13 matchesTorino13 matches
1.15 goals/match▲Goals scored13/130.77 goals/match
0.77 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.23 goals/match
1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals13/130.93 xG/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.5 shots/match
4.46 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.08 shots/match
53.6%●Possession13/1350.8%
3.62 corners/matchCorners13/13●3.92 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bologna7 matchesTorino7 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match
1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.77 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots7/79.57 shots/match
4.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/72.43 shots/match
55%●Possession7/749%
3.43 corners/match●Corners7/71.57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls7/714 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Nov 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaTorino
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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