PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

DLLDD
1–1Full-time recap

Bologna

WDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceBologna
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals1.55 xG/match▲1.24 xG/match
Possession42%58%●
Corners6 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Joan González · Lecce · 24′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · Bologna · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Blin · Lecce · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRémi Oudin · Lecce · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKacper Urbański · Bologna · 89′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicola Sansone · Lecce · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Dorgu · Lecce · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 36′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHamza Rafia · Lecce · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedValentin Gendrey · Lecce · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDan Ndoye · Bologna · 40′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSydney van Hooijdonk · Bologna · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedStefan Posch · Bologna · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCharalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna · 68′ · 0.08 xG · goalDan Ndoye · Bologna · 76′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 76′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJoan González · Lecce · 31′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedCharalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna · 70′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Lecce · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.59 xG. Bologna: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Roberto Piccoli · Lecce · 90′Charalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 1.59 xG · Bologna 1.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce have a visible home split

moderate

Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce
0Draws
2Bologna
Lecce — Bologna · Serie A2–3
Bologna — Lecce · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Bologna in 7 · 3 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/141.14 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.79 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/14▲1.2 xG/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.96 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1411.2 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.5 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.43 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.5 shots/match
46.1%Possessionseason · 14/14●53.9%
3.64 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/143.57 corners/match
3.79 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 14/144.79 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲43%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce22.5
Bologna67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce49.2
Bologna49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce36.7
Bologna72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce67.5
Bologna7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce82.5
Bologna62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce17.5
Bologna12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce49.4
Bologna43.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce14 matchesBologna14 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.14 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.79 goals/match
0.99 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.2 xG/match
12.5 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.2 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.43 shots/match
46.1%Possession14/14●53.9%
3.64 corners/match●Corners14/143.57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce8 matchesBologna7 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/70.86 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/7▲1 goals/match
1.23 xG/match▲Expected goals8/71.01 xG/match
15.3 shots/match▲Shots8/79.71 shots/match
4.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/74.14 shots/match
46.5%Possession8/7●52.9%
4.38 corners/match●Corners8/73.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls8/713 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.75 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.66 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceBologna
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Lecce vs Bologna — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath