PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Napoli

WLWLL
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliCagliari
Shots21 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.86 xG/match▲1.12 xG/match
Possession67%●33%
Corners5 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Victor Osimhen · Napoli · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTommaso Augello · Cagliari · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNatan · Napoli · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Obert · Cagliari · 46′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 16′ · 0.06 xG · on targetVictor Osimhen · Napoli · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVictor Osimhen · Napoli · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJens-Lys Cajuste · Napoli · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJens-Lys Cajuste · Napoli · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFrank Anguissa · Napoli · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVictor Osimhen · Napoli · 69′ · 0.09 xG · goalGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAmir Rrahmani · Napoli · 29′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVictor Osimhen · Napoli · 18′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 38′ · 0.18 xG · on targetAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 89′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 30′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 75′ · 0.28 xG · goalLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 72′ · 0.33 xG · goalNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 43′ · 0.40 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Napoli: 21 shots, 5 on target, 1.86 xG. Cagliari: 9 shots, 3 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Victor Osimhen · Napoli · 69′Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 75′Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 1.86 xG · Cagliari 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.13 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.13 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.6 shots/match▲ShotsNapoli · Cagliari12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNapoliCagliariBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Napoli
1Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Napoli · Serie A1–1
Napoli — Cagliari · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 2 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/161 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.81 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/161.15 xG/match
1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 16/161.53 xG/match
17.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1612.4 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612.9 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.31 shots/match
3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164 shots/match
59.5%●Possessionseason · 16/1642.7%
6.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/164.38 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.06 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.75 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1663%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli97.5
Cagliari12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli94.2
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli75.8
Cagliari31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli87.5
Cagliari77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli2.5
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli97.5
Cagliari37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli73.8
Cagliari34.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Napoli16 matchesCagliari16 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.81 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.15 xG/match
17.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1612.4 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.31 shots/match
59.5%●Possession16/1642.7%
6.5 corners/match●Corners16/164.38 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.75 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Napoli8 matchesCagliari8 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/80.63 goals/match
1.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
1.88 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.79 xG/match
19.6 shots/match▲Shots8/89.13 shots/match
5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target8/82.5 shots/match
60.8%●Possession8/841.1%
7.25 corners/match●Corners8/83.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.5 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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