PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Mon, 11 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariSassuolo
Shots18 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals1.09 xG/match▲0.89 xG/match
Possession60%●40%
Corners10 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 68′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGabriele Zappa · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 4′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Cagliari · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Cagliari · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriele Zappa · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 72′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMatías Viña · Sassuolo · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarco Mancosu · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 37′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArmand Laurienté · Sassuolo · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Goldaniga · Cagliari · 29′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAndrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Pinamonti · Sassuolo · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalMartin Erlić · Sassuolo · 7′ · 0.20 xG · goalMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 20′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedMatheus Henrique · Sassuolo · 5′ · 0.39 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.11 xG. Sassuolo: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.90 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Gianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 90′Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 90′Martin Erlić · Sassuolo · 7′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 1.11 xG · Sassuolo 0.90 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari have a visible home split

moderate

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Sassuolo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Cagliari
1Draws
0Sassuolo
Cagliari — Sassuolo · Serie A1–0
Sassuolo — Cagliari · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Sassuolo in 5 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/151.87 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/15▲1.22 xG/match
1.5 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 15/151.74 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲13.8 shots/match
12.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1514.9 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/15▲4.8 shots/match
3.93 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/155.07 shots/match
43.3%Possessionseason · 15/15●45.4%
4.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/15●5.53 corners/match
6.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/156 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/150%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲73%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari12.5
Sassuolo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari36.7
Sassuolo72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari33.3
Sassuolo15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari77.5
Sassuolo97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari40
Sassuolo12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari37.5
Sassuolo82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari39.4
Sassuolo62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cagliari15 matchesSassuolo15 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.87 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲1.22 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots15/15▲13.8 shots/match
3.33 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲4.8 shots/match
43.3%Possession15/15●45.4%
4.47 corners/matchCorners15/15●5.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cagliari8 matchesSassuolo7 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/7▲1.57 goals/match
1.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/72.14 goals/match
1.5 xG/match▲Expected goals8/71.12 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots8/711.6 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target8/74.29 shots/match
44.3%●Possession8/744.1%
5.13 corners/match●Corners8/74.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls8/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.11 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 11 Dec 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariSassuolo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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