Serie A · 2023Fri, 29 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Genoa

LDLDW

1–1Full-time recap

Inter

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Genoa	Inter
Shots	13 shots/match	16 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.54 xG/match	1.81 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Genoa: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.53 xG. Inter: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genoa 0.53 xG · Inter 0.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.6 shots/match▲ShotsGenoa · Inter16 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Genoa	Inter	Baseline
Shots	10.6 shots/match	16 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	11.3 shots/match	10.1 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.4%PossessionGenoa · Inter●56.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Genoa	Inter	Baseline
Possession	43.4%	56.1%	51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa

1Draws

1Inter

25 Feb 2022Genoa — Inter · Serie A0–0

21 Aug 2021Inter — Genoa · Serie A4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 11 · 2 too close

1.06 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲2.33 goals/match

1.28 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.44 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 18/18▲2.13 xG/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.75 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲16 shots/match

11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲10.1 shots/match

2.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲5.28 shots/match

3.44 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲2.83 shots/match

43.4%Possessionseason · 18/18●56.1%

3.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●5.67 corners/match

4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲3.61 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲67%

72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa12.5

Inter87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa14.2

Inter94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa57.5

Inter94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa42.5

Inter72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa30

Inter17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa7.5

Inter82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa10.6

Inter71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Genoa18 matchesInter18 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.33 goals/match

1.28 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲0.44 goals/match

0.89 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲2.13 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots18/18▲16 shots/match

2.94 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲5.28 shots/match

43.4%Possession18/18●56.1%

3.44 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Genoa9 matchesInter9 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2.11 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.33 goals/match

0.85 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.75 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.1 shots/match

3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲4.56 shots/match

42%Possession9/9●56%

4.67 corners/match●Corners9/93.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/911.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.11 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 29 Dec 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4