Serie A · 2023Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Udinese

DDWLD

2–3Full-time recap

Milan

WDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Udinese	Milan
Shots	11 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.55 xG/match	2.72 xG/match▲
Possession	30%	70%●
Corners	5 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Udinese: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.55 xG. Milan: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Udinese 0.55 xG · Milan 2.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Udinese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Milan have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Udinese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Udinese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.1 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.5%PossessionUdinese · Milan●56.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Udinese	Milan	Baseline
Possession	39.5%	56.4%	51.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Udinese

2Draws

1Milan

4 Nov 2023Milan — Udinese · Serie A0–1

18 Mar 2023Udinese — Milan · Serie A3–1

13 Aug 2022Milan — Udinese · Serie A4–2

25 Feb 2022Milan — Udinese · Serie A1–1

11 Dec 2021Udinese — Milan · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Udinese favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 9 · 3 too close

1.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.95 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.1 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.58 xG/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.25 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.5 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2114.4 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲5.1 shots/match

4.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/214.14 shots/match

39.5%Possessionseason · 21/21●56.4%

4.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●4.52 corners/match

6.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.52 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲38%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Udinese2.5

Milan82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Udinese50.8

Milan84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Udinese37.5

Milan40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Udinese97.5

Milan42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Udinese77.5

Milan17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Udinese32.5

Milan37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Udinese55

Milan53.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Udinese21 matchesMilan21 matches

1.1 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.95 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.1 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.58 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.5 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲5.1 shots/match

39.5%Possession21/21●56.4%

4.48 corners/matchCorners21/21●4.52 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Udinese11 matchesMilan11 matches

1.36 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲2.09 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.64 goals/match

1.39 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.62 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots11/1113.5 shots/match

5.36 shots/matchShots on target11/115.36 shots/match

41.5%Possession11/11●59.6%

5.09 corners/match●Corners11/114.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1111 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4