Serie A · 2023Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Frosinone

LLLLL

3–1Full-time recap

Cagliari

LLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Frosinone	Cagliari
Shots	17 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.84 xG/match▲	0.58 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	8 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Frosinone: 17 shots, 7 on target, 2.81 xG. Cagliari: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Frosinone 2.81 xG · Cagliari 0.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.82 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.82 shots/match	12 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	0.95 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Frosinone have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.9%●PossessionFrosinone · Cagliari43.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Frosinone	Cagliari	Baseline
Possession	52.9%	43.3%	51.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Frosinone

0Draws

1Cagliari

29 Oct 2023Cagliari — Frosinone · Serie A4–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Frosinone favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 6 · 2 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/210.95 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.71 goals/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/211.1 xG/match

1.57 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.46 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲12 shots/match

15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲12.8 shots/match

3.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.19 shots/match

5.05 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.95 shots/match

52.9%●Possessionseason · 21/2143.3%

4.95 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/214.62 corners/match

5.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/216.38 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲14%

76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Frosinone57.5

Cagliari12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Frosinone44.2

Cagliari25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Frosinone12.5

Cagliari35.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Frosinone17.5

Cagliari62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Frosinone7.5

Cagliari60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Frosinone62.5

Cagliari42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Frosinone35

Cagliari38.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Frosinone21 matchesCagliari21 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored21/210.95 goals/match

1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.71 goals/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals21/211.1 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots21/21▲12 shots/match

3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.19 shots/match

52.9%●Possession21/2143.3%

4.95 corners/match●Corners21/214.62 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Frosinone11 matchesCagliari11 matches

1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.64 goals/match

1.45 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals11/110.79 xG/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots11/119.82 shots/match

4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.64 shots/match

54.2%●Possession11/1142.6%

5.36 corners/match●Corners11/114.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.18 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.66 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4