PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Mon, 15 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
5–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaFrosinone
Shots21 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals4.01 xG/match▲0.42 xG/match
Possession48%52%●
Corners8 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Abdou Harroui · Frosinone · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Barrenechea · Frosinone · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWalid Cheddira · Frosinone · 75′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 25′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMatías Soulé · Frosinone · 58′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 14′ · 0.04 xG · goalLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Ruggeri · Atalanta · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFarès Ghedjemis · Frosinone · 81′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLuca Mazzitelli · Frosinone · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 85′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 79′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLuca Mazzitelli · Frosinone · 40′ · 0.12 xG · on targetDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 83′ · 0.13 xG · goalWalid Cheddira · Frosinone · 46′ · 0.14 xG · on targetÉderson · Atalanta · 24′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.22 xG · on targetAleksey Miranchuk · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.32 xG · on targetÉderson · Atalanta · 13′ · 0.60 xG · goalTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 8′ · 0.82 xG · goalEmil Holm · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.99 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 21 shots, 9 on target, 4.11 xG. Frosinone: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 8′Éderson · Atalanta · 13′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 14′Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 83′Emil Holm · Atalanta · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 4.11 xG · Frosinone 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Frosinone11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaFrosinoneBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match11 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.2 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta
0Draws
1Frosinone
Frosinone — Atalanta · Serie A2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Frosinone in 0 · 2 too close

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.25 goals/match
1.05 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.95 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/201.09 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/201.61 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011 shots/match
11.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2015.5 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.7 shots/match
3.55 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.1 shots/match
51.1%Possessionseason · 20/20●52.6%
5.9 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/204.8 corners/match
4.2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/205.75 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2010.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2010%
85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2075%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta47.5
Frosinone57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta87.5
Frosinone37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta67.5
Frosinone12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta62.5
Frosinone12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta67.5
Frosinone7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Frosinone47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta83.8
Frosinone27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta20 matchesFrosinone20 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.25 goals/match
1.05 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.95 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals20/201.09 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots20/2011 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.7 shots/match
51.1%Possession20/20●52.6%
5.9 corners/match●Corners20/204.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls20/2010.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta10 matchesFrosinone10 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.4 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.1 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
50.9%Possession10/10●51.5%
6.7 corners/match●Corners10/104.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.24 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 15 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaFrosinone
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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