PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Roma 1–1 Atalanta · Serie A

Roma

WDLWL
1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Roma and Atalanta drew 1–1.

Shots
168
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
2.070.74
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Roma and Atalanta drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Roma – Atalanta): shots 16–8, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 2.07–0.74, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots8 shotsRoma 16 shots, Atalanta 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsRoma 6 shots, Atalanta 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.07 xG0.74 xGRoma 2.07 xG, Atalanta 0.74 xG
  • Possession55%45%Roma 55%, Atalanta 45%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersRoma 6 corners, Atalanta 5 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls14 foulsRoma 14 fouls, Atalanta 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rasmus Kristensen · Roma · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicola Zalewski · Roma · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicola Zalewski · Roma · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBerat Djimsiti · Atalanta · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEmil Holm · Atalanta · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 62′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 21′ · 0.05 xG · on targetGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 6′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPaulo Dybala · Roma · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 22′ · 0.10 xG · on targetÉderson · Atalanta · 61′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Bove · Roma · 34′ · 0.13 xG · on targetPaulo Dybala · Roma · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 57′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 80′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 8′ · 0.22 xG · goalPaulo Dybala · Roma · 33′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 39′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 16 shots, 6 on target, 2.08 xG. Atalanta: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Paulo Dybala · Roma · 39′Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 2.08 xG · Atalanta 0.75 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Roma
0Draws
2Atalanta
Atalanta — Roma · Serie A3–1
Roma — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Roma — Atalanta · Serie A1–0
Atalanta — Roma · Serie A1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Roma favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Atalanta in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Roma19 matchesAtalanta19 matches
1.63 goals/matchGoals scored19/191.58 goals/match
1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.11 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/191.29 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 13.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 4.89 shots/match
53.2% ●Possession19/1951.2%
4.89 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.79 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRomaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headRoma — Atalanta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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