PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

WLLDL
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceJuventus
Shots12 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.64 xG/match2.14 xG/match▲
Possession52%●48%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rémi Oudin · Lecce · 18′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRémi Oudin · Lecce · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFilip Kostić · Juventus · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFabio Miretti · Juventus · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Dorgu · Lecce · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFederico Gatti · Juventus · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFabio Miretti · Juventus · 16′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedWeston McKennie · Juventus · 11′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 59′ · 0.10 xG · on targetNikola Krstović · Lecce · 15′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedNicola Sansone · Lecce · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetWeston McKennie · Juventus · 49′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 52′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 59′ · 0.14 xG · goalBremer · Juventus · 85′ · 0.16 xG · goalSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 88′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedWeston McKennie · Juventus · 68′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 68′ · 0.97 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.65 xG. Juventus: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Dušan Vlahović · Juventus · 59′Dušan Vlahović · Juventus · 68′Bremer · Juventus · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 0.65 xG · Juventus 2.54 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible home split

moderate

Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Juventus show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsLecce · Juventus13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLecceJuventusBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against13.7 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce
0Draws
3Juventus
Juventus — Lecce · Serie A1–0
Juventus — Lecce · Serie A2–1
Lecce — Juventus · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Juventus in 11 · 2 too close

0.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.67 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.57 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 21/21▲1.61 xG/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 21/21▲0.67 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.9 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲11.6 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.24 shots/match
4.76 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲2.67 shots/match
44.8%Possessionseason · 21/21●47.4%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/21●5 corners/match
4.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.48 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2112.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
10%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲57%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce30
Juventus42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce44.2
Juventus75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce31.7
Juventus82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce72.5
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce97.5
Juventus52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce17.5
Juventus67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce55
Juventus66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce21 matchesJuventus21 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.67 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲0.57 goals/match
1 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲1.61 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.9 shots/match
3.81 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.24 shots/match
44.8%Possession21/21●47.4%
4 corners/matchCorners21/21●5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce11 matchesJuventus11 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.73 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.73 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.6 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots11/1112.7 shots/match
4.55 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.18 shots/match
45.9%Possession11/11●49%
4.73 corners/matchCorners11/114.73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Lecce vs Juventus — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath