Serie A · 2023Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Frosinone

LLLWD

2–3Full-time recap

Milan

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Frosinone	Milan
Shots	7 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.02 xG/match	1.42 xG/match▲
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	2 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Frosinone: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.06 xG. Milan: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Frosinone 1.06 xG · Milan 1.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	2 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsFrosinone · Milan13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Frosinone	Milan	Baseline
Shots	11.1 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	15 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Frosinone

0Draws

1Milan

2 Dec 2023Milan — Frosinone · Serie A3–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Frosinone favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 11 · 2 too close

1.35 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2 goals/match

1.91 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.17 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/23▲1.65 xG/match

1.59 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.26 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲13.5 shots/match

15 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲14.1 shots/match

3.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲5.04 shots/match

5.04 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.13 shots/match

52.3%Possessionseason · 23/23●56.2%

5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/234.48 corners/match

5.39 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.26 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲35%

78%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲91%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Frosinone57.5

Milan82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Frosinone42.5

Milan84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Frosinone10.8

Milan44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Frosinone12.5

Milan42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Frosinone12.5

Milan17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Frosinone65

Milan32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Frosinone35.6

Milan52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Frosinone23 matchesMilan23 matches

1.35 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2 goals/match

1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.17 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲1.65 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots23/23▲13.5 shots/match

3.96 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲5.04 shots/match

52.3%Possession23/23●56.2%

5 corners/match●Corners23/234.48 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Frosinone12 matchesMilan12 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.17 goals/match

1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match

1.22 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.6 xG/match

11.3 shots/matchShots12/12▲13.5 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.33 shots/match

53.2%Possession12/12●59.5%

5.08 corners/match●Corners12/124.17 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.25 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.89 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4