Serie A · 2023Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

DWWWW

2–2Full-time recap

Bologna

WWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Bologna
Shots	14 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	3.28 xG/match▲	1.84 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	4 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 14 shots, 4 on target, 3.37 xG. Bologna: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 3.37 xG · Bologna 1.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

Milan's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.95 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.95 goals/match	1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Milan

2Draws

0Bologna

21 Aug 2023Bologna — Milan · Serie A0–2

15 Apr 2023Bologna — Milan · Serie A1–1

27 Aug 2022Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–0

4 Apr 2022Milan — Bologna · Serie A0–0

23 Oct 2021Bologna — Milan · Serie A2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Bologna in 4 · 4 too close

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/211.19 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/21▲0.95 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 22/211.18 xG/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/21▲1 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/2111.7 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/21▲10.8 shots/match

5.05 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/214.33 shots/match

4.14 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/21▲3.33 shots/match

56.1%Possessionseason · 22/21●56.9%

4.5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/213.71 corners/match

4.36 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/214.57 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2112.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

36%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2138%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2176%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan82.5

Bologna87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan84.2

Bologna50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan42.5

Bologna80.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan47.5

Bologna2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan17.5

Bologna47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan37.5

Bologna12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan53.8

Bologna41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan22 matchesBologna21 matches

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scored22/211.19 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed22/21▲0.95 goals/match

1.66 xG/match▲Expected goals22/211.18 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots22/2111.7 shots/match

5.05 shots/match▲Shots on target22/214.33 shots/match

56.1%Possession22/21●56.9%

4.5 corners/match●Corners22/213.71 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls22/2112.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan11 matchesBologna11 matches

1.82 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111 goals/match

0.64 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.36 goals/match

1.7 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.14 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.7 shots/match

4.73 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114.27 shots/match

52.5%Possession11/11●56.5%

4.82 corners/match●Corners11/113.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4