Serie A · 2023

Monza 4–2 Milan · Serie A

Monza

LLWDD
4–2Historical match

Milan

WWDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Monza won 4–2.

Shots
1216
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
1.751.33
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Monza beat Milan 4–2. Recorded in this match (Monza – Milan): shots 12–16, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 1.75–1.33, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsMonza · Milan13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonzaMilanBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots16 shotsMonza 12 shots, Milan 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsMonza 6 shots, Milan 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.75 xG1.33 xGMonza 1.75 xG, Milan 1.33 xG
  • Possession50%50%Monza 50%, Milan 50%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersMonza 7 corners, Milan 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsMonza 11 fouls, Milan 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dany Mota · Monza · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Florenzi · Milan · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetValentín Carboni · Monza · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 88′ · 0.02 xG · goalDaniel Maldini · Monza · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Monza · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Florenzi · Milan · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSamuele Birindelli · Monza · 75′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · Milan · 79′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDany Mota · Monza · 57′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedPedro Pereira · Monza · 86′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Colombo · Monza · 90′ · 0.12 xG · goalLuka Jović · Milan · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIsmaël Bennacer · Milan · 24′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 63′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedWarren Bondo · Monza · 90′ · 0.15 xG · goalDany Mota · Monza · 45′ · 0.18 xG · goalOlivier Giroud · Milan · 64′ · 0.46 xG · goalMatteo Pessina · Monza · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monza: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.77 xG. Milan: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Dany Mota · Monza · 45′Matteo Pessina · Monza · 45′Lorenzo Colombo · Monza · 90′Warren Bondo · Monza · 90′Olivier Giroud · Milan · 64′Christian Pulišić · Milan · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 1.77 xG · Milan 1.35 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Monza
0Draws
3Milan
Milan — Monza · Serie A3–0
Monza — Milan · Serie A0–1
Milan — Monza · Serie A4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Monza favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Monza25 matchesMilan25 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.96 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed25/251.24 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.61 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 13.4 shots/match
3.52 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.12 shots/match
54.5%Possession25/25● 55.3%
5.04 corners/match ●Corners25/254.28 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Feb 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

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