Serie A · 2024Sat, 31 Aug 2024, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lazio

2–2Full-time recap

Milan

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lazio	Milan
Shots	7 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.07 xG/match▲	1.29 xG/match
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	5 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lazio: 7 shots, 5 on target, 2.05 xG. Milan: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 2.05 xG · Milan 1.27 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: Lazio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

8 corners/matchCornersLazio · Milan●8.33 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Lazio	Milan	Baseline
Corners	8 corners/match	8.33 corners/match	5.83 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Lazio show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lazio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsLazio · Milan17.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Lazio	Milan	Baseline
Shots	12.3 shots/match	17.7 shots/match	14.2 shots/match
Shots against	9.67 shots/match	7.67 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lazio

0Draws

4Milan

1 Mar 2024Lazio — Milan · Serie A0–1

30 Sept 2023Milan — Lazio · Serie A2–0

6 May 2023Milan — Lazio · Serie A2–0

24 Jan 2023Lazio — Milan · Serie A4–0

24 Apr 2022Lazio — Milan · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 0 · 13 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31.67 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/32 goals/match

1.92 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.79 xG/match

0.92 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.6 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/317.7 shots/match

9.67 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/37.67 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/35 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/34.33 shots/match

58%Possessionseason · 3/3●58.3%

8 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/3●8.33 corners/match

4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/33.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/310.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/30%

100%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/3100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio70.8

Milan79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio69.4

Milan70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio65.3

Milan47.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio4.2

Milan79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio50

Milan25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio87.5

Milan95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio64.6

Milan66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lazio3 matchesMilan3 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.67 goals/match

1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match

1.92 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.79 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots3/3▲17.7 shots/match

5.33 shots/match▲Shots on target3/35 shots/match

58%Possession3/3●58.3%

8 corners/matchCorners3/3●8.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls3/310.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lazio2 matchesMilan2 matches

—Goals scored2/2—

—Goals allowed2/2—

—Expected goals2/2—

—Shots2/2—

—Shots on target2/2—

—Possession2/2—

—Corners2/2—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Aug 2024, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4