PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

Genoa

WLDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaGenoa
Shots23 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals3.65 xG/match▲0.73 xG/match
Possession63%●37%
Corners4 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Johan Vásquez · Genoa · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJohan Vásquez · Genoa · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Genoa · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAarón Martín · Genoa · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 80′ · 0.02 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 63′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Pinamonti · Genoa · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 60′ · 0.08 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKoni De Winter · Genoa · 42′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNicolò Zaniolo · Atalanta · 77′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 31′ · 0.18 xG · on targetIsak Hien · Atalanta · 13′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 45′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedIsak Hien · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 62′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 50′ · 0.41 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 24′ · 0.48 xG · goalJeff Ekhator · Genoa · 83′ · 0.52 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 74′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 23 shots, 8 on target, 3.69 xG. Genoa: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Mateo Retegui · Atalanta · 24′Mateo Retegui · Atalanta · 50′Éderson · Atalanta · 60′Mateo Retegui · Atalanta · 74′Marten de Roon · Atalanta · 80′Jeff Ekhator · Genoa · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 3.69 xG · Genoa 0.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Genoa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Genoa have a visible away split

weak

Genoa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Genoa11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaGenoaBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match11.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Atalanta
2Draws
0Genoa
Genoa — Atalanta · Serie A1–4
Atalanta — Genoa · Serie A2–0
Atalanta — Genoa · Serie A0–0
Genoa — Atalanta · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Genoa in 0 · 3 too close

2.29 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/70.71 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72.14 goals/match
2.16 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/71.03 xG/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/711.1 shots/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/714.1 shots/match
5.86 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/73 shots/match
4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.86 shots/match
56.1%●Possessionseason · 7/741.7%
5.29 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/73.14 corners/match
2.86 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/74 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/714%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/757%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta67.5
Genoa20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta88.3
Genoa23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta41.7
Genoa22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta77.5
Genoa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta80
Genoa55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta67.5
Genoa15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta80.6
Genoa30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta7 matchesGenoa7 matches
2.29 goals/match▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72.14 goals/match
2.16 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.03 xG/match
16.3 shots/match▲Shots7/711.1 shots/match
5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73 shots/match
56.1%●Possession7/741.7%
5.29 corners/match●Corners7/73.14 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.6 fouls/matchFouls7/712.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta3 matchesGenoa3 matches
3.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/30.67 goals/match
2 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.33 goals/match
2.3 xG/match▲Expected goals3/30.64 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots3/39 shots/match
6.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/31 shots/match
57.7%●Possession3/339.3%
5 corners/match●Corners3/33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls3/314.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaGenoa
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Atalanta vs Genoa — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath