PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Atalanta 2–3 Napoli · Serie A

2–3Historical match

Napoli

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A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Napoli won 2–3.

Shots
156
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
0.70.8
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Napoli beat Atalanta 3–2. Recorded in this match (Atalanta – Napoli): shots 15–6, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 0.7–0.8, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.19 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atalanta.

4 days ▲Rest daysAtalanta · Napoli6 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtalantaNapoliBaseline
Rest days4 days6 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Napoli have a visible away split

moderate

Napoli's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots6 shotsAtalanta 15 shots, Napoli 6 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsAtalanta 6 shots, Napoli 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.7 xG0.8 xGAtalanta 0.7 xG, Napoli 0.8 xG
  • Possession57%43%Atalanta 57%, Napoli 43%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerAtalanta 3 corners, Napoli 1 corner
  • Fouls18 fouls9 foulsAtalanta 18 fouls, Napoli 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marco Brescianini · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMatteo Politano · Napoli · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaoul Bellanova · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRomelu Lukaku · Napoli · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiorgio Scalvini · Atalanta · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathías Olivera · Napoli · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 33′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 58′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 16′ · 0.07 xG · goalAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.07 xG · goalCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 70′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 81′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Politano · Napoli · 27′ · 0.10 xG · goalScott McTominay · Napoli · 40′ · 0.23 xG · goalRomelu Lukaku · Napoli · 78′ · 0.38 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 15 shots, 6 on target, 0.71 xG. Napoli: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Mateo Retegui · Atalanta · 16′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 55′Matteo Politano · Napoli · 27′Scott McTominay · Napoli · 40′Romelu Lukaku · Napoli · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 0.71 xG · Napoli 0.78 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atalanta
0Draws
3Napoli
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A0–3
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A0–3
Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A1–2
Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A2–0
Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atalanta favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Napoli in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atalanta21 matchesNapoli21 matches
2.19 goals/match ▲Goals scored21/211.67 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 0.67 goals/match
1.74 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.43 xG/match
15 shots/match ▲Shots21/2113.6 shots/match
5.62 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/213.86 shots/match
56.6% ●Possession21/2153.2%
4.81 corners/matchCorners21/21● 5.76 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtalantaNapoli
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headAtalanta — Napoli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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