Serie A · 2024Thu, 6 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fiorentina

LLDWW

3–0Full-time recap

Inter

WDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Inter
Shots	10 shots/match	11 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.8 xG/match▲	0.42 xG/match
Possession	28%	72%●
Corners	1 corners/match	8 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fiorentina: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.01 xG. Inter: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.01 xG · Inter 0.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

weak

Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.43 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	2.43 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsFiorentina · Inter15.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Fiorentina	Inter	Baseline
Shots	12.7 shots/match	15.4 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	11.7 shots/match	9.17 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.2%PossessionFiorentina · Inter●60%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fiorentina	Inter	Baseline
Possession	50.2%	60%	49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Fiorentina

1Draws

3Inter

28 Jan 2024Fiorentina — Inter · Serie A0–1

3 Sept 2023Inter — Fiorentina · Serie A4–0

1 Apr 2023Inter — Fiorentina · Serie A0–1

22 Oct 2022Fiorentina — Inter · Serie A3–4

19 Mar 2022Inter — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Inter in 10 · 3 too close

1.74 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲2.43 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/230.96 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 23/23▲1.88 xG/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.82 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲15.4 shots/match

11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲9.17 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲5.61 shots/match

3.78 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.3 shots/match

50.2%Possessionseason · 23/23●60%

4.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/23●6.22 corners/match

4.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲3.3 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2311.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

35%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲48%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina52.5

Inter97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina65

Inter95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina69.2

Inter87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina47.5

Inter67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina27.5

Inter20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina47.5

Inter97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina46.2

Inter76.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina23 matchesInter23 matches

1.74 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲2.43 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed23/230.96 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲1.88 xG/match

12.7 shots/matchShots23/23▲15.4 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲5.61 shots/match

50.2%Possession23/23●60%

4.43 corners/matchCorners23/23●6.22 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls23/2311.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina12 matchesInter12 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.5 goals/match

1.08 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.75 goals/match

1.64 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.9 xG/match

13.7 shots/matchShots12/12▲14.4 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on target12/125.5 shots/match

48.3%Possession12/12●61.3%

5.17 corners/match●Corners12/124.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.11 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 6 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4