PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Milan 1–1 Inter · Serie A

Milan

DDWLW
1–1Historical match

Inter

WWDWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan and Inter drew 1–1.

Shots
1017
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
0.61.61
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan and Inter drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Milan – Inter): shots 10–17, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 0.6–1.61, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.91 corners/matchCornersMilan · Inter● 6.14 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricMilanInterBaseline
Corners5.91 corners/match6.14 corners/match4.56 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots17 shotsMilan 10 shots, Inter 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsMilan 4 shots, Inter 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.6 xG1.61 xGMilan 0.6 xG, Inter 1.61 xG
  • Possession38%62%Milan 38%, Inter 62%
  • Corners8 corners11 cornersMilan 8 corners, Inter 11 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls9 foulsMilan 5 fouls, Inter 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tijjani Reijnders · Milan · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 47′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetStrahinja Pavlović · Milan · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTheo Hernández · Milan · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Camarda · Milan · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 12′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · Milan · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 38′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRafael Leão · Milan · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Augusto · Inter · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 61′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDenzel Dumfries · Inter · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 46′ · 0.08 xG · on targetStefan de Vrij · Inter · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYann Bisseck · Inter · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 37′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 75′ · 0.11 xG · on targetDenzel Dumfries · Inter · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLautaro Martínez · Inter · 35′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedStefan de Vrij · Inter · 90′ · 0.26 xG · goalTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 45′ · 0.28 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.64 xG. Inter: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.36 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Tijjani Reijnders · Milan · 45′Stefan de Vrij · Inter · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.64 xG · Inter 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Milan
0Draws
4Inter
Inter — Milan · Serie A1–2
Milan — Inter · Serie A1–2
Inter — Milan · Serie A5–1
Inter — Milan · UEFA Champions League1–0
Milan — Inter · UEFA Champions League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Inter in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan22 matchesInter22 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 2.55 goals/match
1.09 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 0.86 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.95 xG/match
14.9 shots/matchShots22/2215.6 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target22/225.77 shots/match
53.9%Possession22/22● 59.5%
5.91 corners/matchCorners22/22● 6.14 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanInter
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headMilan — Inter
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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