PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaCagliari
Shots9 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals0.44 xG/match▲0.18 xG/match
Possession59%●41%
Corners8 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rafael Tolói · Atalanta · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarten de Roon · Atalanta · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNadir Zortea · Cagliari · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 85′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 71′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVanja Vlahović · Atalanta · 89′ · 0.15 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG. Cagliari: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 0.42 xG · Cagliari 0.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.83 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.83 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Cagliari12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaCagliariBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Atalanta
0Draws
2Cagliari
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A0–1
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A2–1
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A2–0
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A1–2
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 2 too close

2.16 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.04 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 25/251.56 goals/match
1.73 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/251.27 xG/match
0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 25/251.59 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2512.5 shots/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 25/2513.9 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.52 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 25/254.44 shots/match
56.8%●Possessionseason · 25/2546.1%
4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/25●5.4 corners/match
2.68 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 25/255 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2513.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/2512%
88%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2556%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta82.5
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta90.8
Cagliari39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta70.8
Cagliari35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta67.5
Cagliari82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta17.5
Cagliari72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta67.5
Cagliari77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta66.2
Cagliari60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta25 matchesCagliari25 matches
2.16 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.04 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed25/251.56 goals/match
1.73 xG/match▲Expected goals25/251.27 xG/match
14.7 shots/match▲Shots25/2512.5 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.52 shots/match
56.8%●Possession25/2546.1%
4.96 corners/matchCorners25/25●5.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta12 matchesCagliari12 matches
2.42 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.92 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.42 goals/match
1.71 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.14 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots12/129.83 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.5 shots/match
59%●Possession12/1245.8%
5.25 corners/match●Corners12/124.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Atalanta vs Cagliari — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath