Serie A · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lazio

DWLWW

2–2Full-time recap

Napoli

WWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lazio	Napoli
Shots	12 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.69 xG/match▲	0.35 xG/match
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	7 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	19 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.88 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.88 goals/match	1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Napoli have a visible away split

moderate

Napoli's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.92 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.92 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.24 corners/match●CornersLazio · Napoli5.6 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Lazio	Napoli	Baseline
Corners	6.24 corners/match	5.6 corners/match	4.54 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Lazio

1Draws

1Napoli

8 Dec 2024Napoli — Lazio · Serie A0–1

28 Jan 2024Lazio — Napoli · Serie A0–0

2 Sept 2023Napoli — Lazio · Serie A1–2

3 Mar 2023Napoli — Lazio · Serie A0–1

3 Sept 2022Lazio — Napoli · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Napoli in 5 · 4 too close

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 25/251.64 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲0.76 goals/match

1.56 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 25/251.38 xG/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/25▲0.8 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 25/2513.1 shots/match

10.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/259.84 shots/match

5.28 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 25/253.68 shots/match

3.08 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲2.84 shots/match

55.1%●Possessionseason · 25/2553%

6.24 corners/match●Cornersseason · 25/255.6 corners/match

4.12 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.72 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2511.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲48%

88%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/2584%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio77.5

Napoli57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio84.2

Napoli59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio67.5

Napoli90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio72.5

Napoli37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio27.5

Napoli12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio92.5

Napoli82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio71.2

Napoli50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lazio25 matchesNapoli25 matches

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored25/251.64 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲0.76 goals/match

1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals25/251.38 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots25/2513.1 shots/match

5.28 shots/match▲Shots on target25/253.68 shots/match

55.1%●Possession25/2553%

6.24 corners/match●Corners25/255.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lazio13 matchesNapoli13 matches

2.08 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.77 goals/match

1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲0.85 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.11 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots13/139.92 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.08 shots/match

55.4%●Possession13/1350.8%

6.08 corners/match●Corners13/133.92 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.89 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4