Serie A · 2024Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

WLWDW

1–0Full-time recap

Hellas Verona

LLDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Hellas Verona
Shots	18 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.15 xG/match▲	0.37 xG/match
Possession	74%●	26%
Corners	10 corners/match●	7 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 18 shots, 3 on target, 2.17 xG. Hellas Verona: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 2.17 xG · Hellas Verona 0.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	1.04 goals/match	1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match▲ShotsMilan · Hellas Verona10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Hellas Verona	Baseline
Shots	15.1 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	12.6 shots/match
Shots against	10.7 shots/match	14.7 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

55%●PossessionMilan · Hellas Verona38.2%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Hellas Verona	Baseline
Possession	55%	38.2%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

5Milan

0Draws

0Hellas Verona

20 Dec 2024Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A0–1

17 Mar 2024Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–3

23 Sept 2023Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0

4 Jun 2023Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–1

16 Oct 2022Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0 · 2 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/251.04 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/252.16 goals/match

1.67 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/251.01 xG/match

1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/251.59 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2510.7 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2514.7 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/252.96 shots/match

3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/255.12 shots/match

55%●Possessionseason · 24/2538.2%

6.08 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/254.4 corners/match

3.92 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/255.84 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2514.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2516%

83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2556%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan72.5

Hellas Verona2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan80.8

Hellas Verona21.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan72.5

Hellas Verona9.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan87.5

Hellas Verona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan7.5

Hellas Verona87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan87.5

Hellas Verona42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan68.8

Hellas Verona41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan24 matchesHellas Verona25 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored24/251.04 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/252.16 goals/match

1.67 xG/match▲Expected goals24/251.01 xG/match

15.1 shots/match▲Shots24/2510.7 shots/match

5.38 shots/match▲Shots on target24/252.96 shots/match

55%●Possession24/2538.2%

6.08 corners/match●Corners24/254.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls24/2514.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan13 matchesHellas Verona13 matches

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.15 goals/match

0.69 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.85 goals/match

1.67 xG/match▲Expected goals13/130.91 xG/match

16.2 shots/match▲Shots13/139.46 shots/match

5.31 shots/match▲Shots on target13/132.85 shots/match

55.6%●Possession13/1337.2%

6.92 corners/match●Corners13/133.46 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1316.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.24 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4