PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Milan 1–0 Hellas Verona · Serie A

Milan

WLWDW
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–0.

Shots
187
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
2.150.37
Possession
74%26%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Hellas Verona 1–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Hellas Verona): shots 18–7, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 2.15–0.37, possession 74%–26%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Hellas Verona10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanHellas VeronaBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match14.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

55% ●PossessionMilan · Hellas Verona38.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanHellas VeronaBaseline
Possession55%38.2%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots7 shotsMilan 18 shots, Hellas Verona 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsMilan 3 shots, Hellas Verona 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.15 xG0.37 xGMilan 2.15 xG, Hellas Verona 0.37 xG
  • Possession74%26%Milan 74%, Hellas Verona 26%
  • Corners10 corners7 cornersMilan 10 corners, Hellas Verona 7 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls18 foulsMilan 11 fouls, Hellas Verona 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kyle Walker · Milan · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 25′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGrigoris Kastanos · Hellas Verona · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlphadjo Cissè · Hellas Verona · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMalick Thiaw · Milan · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · Milan · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoão Félix · Milan · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Mosquera · Hellas Verona · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Valentini · Hellas Verona · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 67′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 2′ · 0.08 xG · on targetYunus Musah · Milan · 39′ · 0.09 xG · on targetSantiago Giménez · Milan · 67′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 71′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGrigoris Kastanos · Hellas Verona · 54′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMalick Thiaw · Milan · 25′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 45′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Giménez · Milan · 75′ · 0.88 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 18 shots, 3 on target, 2.17 xG. Hellas Verona: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Santiago Giménez · Milan · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 2.17 xG · Hellas Verona 0.37 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Milan
0Draws
0Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A0–1
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–3
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0
Milan — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–1
Hellas Verona — Milan · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan24 matchesHellas Verona25 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/251.04 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed24/252.16 goals/match
1.67 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/251.01 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots24/2510.7 shots/match
5.38 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/252.96 shots/match
55% ●Possession24/2538.2%
6.08 corners/match ●Corners24/254.4 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls24/2514.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headMilan — Hellas Verona
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required