Serie A · 2024Thu, 27 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bologna

DWDWL

2–1Full-time recap

Milan

WDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bologna	Milan
Shots	14 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.08 xG/match▲	0.61 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bologna: 14 shots, 4 on target, 2.06 xG. Milan: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.77 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 2.06 xG · Milan 0.77 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.5 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.46 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.46 goals/match	1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bologna

3Draws

2Milan

27 Jan 2024Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–2

21 Aug 2023Bologna — Milan · Serie A0–2

15 Apr 2023Bologna — Milan · Serie A1–1

27 Aug 2022Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–0

4 Apr 2022Milan — Bologna · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 5 · 4 too close

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/261.46 goals/match

1.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.08 goals/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/26▲1.66 xG/match

1 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/261.04 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲15.2 shots/match

9.23 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2610.8 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲5.42 shots/match

2.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/263.5 shots/match

58.2%●Possessionseason · 26/2655%

4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/26●6.23 corners/match

3.42 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/263.92 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲38%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2685%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna92.5

Milan67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna70

Milan79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna83.3

Milan70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna32.5

Milan97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna87.5

Milan7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna45

Milan92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna69.4

Milan70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bologna26 matchesMilan26 matches

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored26/261.46 goals/match

1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1.08 goals/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲1.66 xG/match

13.8 shots/matchShots26/26▲15.2 shots/match

4.81 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲5.42 shots/match

58.2%●Possession26/2655%

4.5 corners/matchCorners26/26●6.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls26/2611 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bologna13 matchesMilan13 matches

1.69 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.38 goals/match

0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.46 goals/match

1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.64 xG/match

16.5 shots/match▲Shots13/1314.2 shots/match

5.31 shots/matchShots on target13/135.54 shots/match

60.8%●Possession13/1354.3%

5.77 corners/match●Corners13/135.54 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.11 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 27 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4