Serie A · 2024Sun, 2 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

DWWLL

1–2Full-time recap

Lazio

LWWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Lazio
Shots	15 shots/match	21 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.45 xG/match	3.08 xG/match▲
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	14 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.41 xG. Lazio: 21 shots, 8 on target, 3.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.41 xG · Lazio 3.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Milan. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.11 corners/matchCornersMilan · Lazio●6.19 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Lazio	Baseline
Corners	6.11 corners/match	6.19 corners/match	4.52 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Milan.

3 days▲Rest daysMilan · Lazio8.24 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Milan	Lazio	Baseline
Rest days	3 days	8.24 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.81 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.81 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Milan

1Draws

1Lazio

31 Aug 2024Lazio — Milan · Serie A2–2

1 Mar 2024Lazio — Milan · Serie A0–1

30 Sept 2023Milan — Lazio · Serie A2–0

6 May 2023Milan — Lazio · Serie A2–0

24 Jan 2023Lazio — Milan · Serie A4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Lazio in 3 · 7 too close

1.44 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/27▲1.81 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.3 goals/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/271.6 xG/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/271.1 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2714.3 shots/match

11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/27▲10.4 shots/match

5.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/275.3 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/27▲3.07 shots/match

55.2%●Possessionseason · 27/2754.8%

6.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/27●6.19 corners/match

3.96 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/274.15 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

37%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

85%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2785%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan72.5

Lazio67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan80

Lazio84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan68.3

Lazio66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan97.5

Lazio77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan15

Lazio27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan90

Lazio97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan71.9

Lazio72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan27 matchesLazio27 matches

1.44 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲1.81 goals/match

1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.3 goals/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals27/271.6 xG/match

15.2 shots/match▲Shots27/2714.3 shots/match

5.37 shots/matchShots on target27/275.3 shots/match

55.2%●Possession27/2754.8%

6.11 corners/matchCorners27/27●6.19 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan14 matchesLazio14 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.57 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.14 goals/match

1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.56 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1413.9 shots/match

5.21 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.57 shots/match

56%●Possession14/1454.3%

6.64 corners/match●Corners14/146.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.24 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Mar 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4