PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Napoli

DDDLD
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNapoliFiorentina
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.85 xG/match▲1.13 xG/match
Possession49%51%●
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alessandro Buongiorno · Napoli · 16′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGiovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedScott McTominay · Napoli · 21′ · 0.03 xG · on targetScott McTominay · Napoli · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 66′ · 0.03 xG · goalMatteo Politano · Napoli · 77′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 30′ · 0.04 xG · on targetScott McTominay · Napoli · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedScott McTominay · Napoli · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCher Ndour · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhilip Billing · Napoli · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMatteo Politano · Napoli · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Spinazzola · Napoli · 38′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAmir Rrahmani · Napoli · 58′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 32′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 12′ · 0.28 xG · on targetGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 10′ · 0.41 xG · on targetRomelu Lukaku · Napoli · 26′ · 0.49 xG · goalGiovanni Simeone · Napoli · 90′ · 0.49 xG · on targetGiacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 60′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Napoli: 19 shots, 11 on target, 2.83 xG. Fiorentina: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Romelu Lukaku · Napoli · 26′Giacomo Raspadori · Napoli · 60′Albert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 2.83 xG · Fiorentina 0.73 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Napoli have a visible home split

strong

Napoli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Napoli
2Draws
1Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Napoli · Serie A0–3
Fiorentina — Napoli · Serie A2–2
Napoli — Fiorentina · Serie A1–3
Napoli — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0
Fiorentina — Napoli · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 1 · 3 too close

1.61 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/281.54 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.07 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/281.3 xG/match
0.78 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/281.08 xG/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.7 shots/match
9.54 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2811.9 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.43 shots/match
2.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.14 shots/match
53.3%●Possessionseason · 28/2849.9%
5.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 28/284.11 corners/match
3.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/284.07 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2832%
86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2879%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli57.5
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli64.2
Fiorentina55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli94.2
Fiorentina58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli57.5
Fiorentina27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli17.5
Fiorentina27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli82.5
Fiorentina25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli53.8
Fiorentina38.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Napoli28 matchesFiorentina28 matches
1.61 goals/matchGoals scored28/281.54 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.07 goals/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals28/281.3 xG/match
13.5 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.7 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.43 shots/match
53.3%●Possession28/2849.9%
5.79 corners/match●Corners28/284.11 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Napoli14 matchesFiorentina14 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored14/141.43 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.07 goals/match
1.77 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.06 xG/match
16.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.6 shots/match
4.79 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.86 shots/match
55.4%●Possession14/1451.5%
7.5 corners/match●Corners14/143.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.76 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNapoliFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Napoli vs Fiorentina — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath