PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 1–0.

Shots
129
Shots on target
40
Expected goals
1.561.22
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Atalanta 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fiorentina – Atalanta): shots 12–9, shots on target 4–0, expected goals 1.56–1.22, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shotsFiorentina 12 shots, Atalanta 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots0 shotsFiorentina 4 shots, Atalanta 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.56 xG1.22 xGFiorentina 1.56 xG, Atalanta 1.22 xG
  • Possession45%55%Fiorentina 45%, Atalanta 55%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersFiorentina 2 corners, Atalanta 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls16 foulsFiorentina 7 fouls, Atalanta 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPablo Marí · Fiorentina · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuan Cuadrado · Atalanta · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 62′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 43′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 18′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 49′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.31 xG · goalLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.33 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.59 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.82 xG. Atalanta: 9 shots, 0 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.82 xG · Atalanta 1.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fiorentina
1Draws
2Atalanta
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A3–2
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A2–3
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A3–2
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A1–1
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fiorentina favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Atalanta in 7 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fiorentina30 matchesAtalanta30 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 2.1 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed30/300.97 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 1.77 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 5.43 shots/match
49.3%Possession30/30● 55.8%
3.93 corners/matchCorners30/30● 4.73 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFiorentinaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headFiorentina — Atalanta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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