PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaAtalanta
Shots12 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.56 xG/match▲1.22 xG/match
Possession45%55%●
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls7 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPablo Marí · Fiorentina · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuan Cuadrado · Atalanta · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLazar Samardžić · Atalanta · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 52′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 62′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 43′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 18′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 49′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.31 xG · goalLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.33 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.59 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.82 xG. Atalanta: 9 shots, 0 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.82 xG · Atalanta 1.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.57 goals/match1.2 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fiorentina
1Draws
2Atalanta
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A3–2
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A2–3
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A3–2
Fiorentina — Atalanta · Serie A1–1
Atalanta — Fiorentina · Serie A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atalanta in 7 · 6 too close

1.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲2.1 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/300.97 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.77 xG/match
1.08 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/301.04 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲14.8 shots/match
11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲10.3 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲5.43 shots/match
3.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/303.8 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 30/30●55.8%
3.93 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●4.73 corners/match
4.13 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲2.73 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
37%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲40%
80%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina52.5
Atalanta77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina57.5
Atalanta92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina61.7
Atalanta75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina32.5
Atalanta77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina17.5
Atalanta37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina12.5
Atalanta57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina31.2
Atalanta70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina30 matchesAtalanta30 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲2.1 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed30/300.97 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.77 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots30/30▲14.8 shots/match
4.37 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲5.43 shots/match
49.3%Possession30/30●55.8%
3.93 corners/matchCorners30/30●4.73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina16 matchesAtalanta16 matches
1.69 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.13 goals/match
0.94 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.69 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲1.87 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots16/16▲14.1 shots/match
4.81 shots/matchShots on target16/164.94 shots/match
47.4%Possession16/16●53.7%
4.5 corners/matchCorners16/16●4.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.7 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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