Serie A · 2024Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

WWWDD

1–0Full-time recap

Hellas Verona

LWDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Roma	Hellas Verona
Shots	6 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.51 xG/match▲	0.51 xG/match
Possession	55%●	45%
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	5 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Roma: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.54 xG. Hellas Verona: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.51 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 0.54 xG · Hellas Verona 0.51 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Roma have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.91 goals/match	1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.3%●PossessionRoma · Hellas Verona38.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Roma	Hellas Verona	Baseline
Possession	55.3%	38.3%	48.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Roma show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Roma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match▲ShotsRoma · Hellas Verona10.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Roma	Hellas Verona	Baseline
Shots	13.7 shots/match	10.2 shots/match	12 shots/match
Shots against	11.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Roma

0Draws

2Hellas Verona

3 Nov 2024Hellas Verona — Roma · Serie A3–2

20 Jan 2024Roma — Hellas Verona · Serie A2–1

26 Aug 2023Hellas Verona — Roma · Serie A2–1

19 Feb 2023Roma — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0

31 Oct 2022Hellas Verona — Roma · Serie A1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0 · 2 too close

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 33/330.91 goals/match

0.97 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 33/331.82 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 33/330.95 xG/match

1.06 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 33/331.46 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 33/3310.2 shots/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 33/3313.7 shots/match

4.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/332.67 shots/match

4.12 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/334.76 shots/match

55.3%●Possessionseason · 33/3338.3%

4.48 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/334.18 corners/match

4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/335.15 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3315 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3324%

82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3355%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma77.5

Hellas Verona2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma65.8

Hellas Verona19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma62.5

Hellas Verona19.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma47.5

Hellas Verona82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma7.5

Hellas Verona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma47.5

Hellas Verona27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma48.8

Hellas Verona38.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma33 matchesHellas Verona33 matches

1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored33/330.91 goals/match

0.97 goals/match▲Goals allowed33/331.82 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals33/330.95 xG/match

13.7 shots/match▲Shots33/3310.2 shots/match

4.58 shots/match▲Shots on target33/332.67 shots/match

55.3%●Possession33/3338.3%

4.48 corners/match●Corners33/334.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls33/3315 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma17 matchesHellas Verona17 matches

1.94 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171 goals/match

0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.65 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.82 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots17/179.18 shots/match

4.82 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.59 shots/match

55.5%●Possession17/1736.9%

4.24 corners/match●Corners17/173.35 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.94 fouls/matchFouls17/1716 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.24 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4