PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Milan 0–1 Atalanta · Serie A

Milan

WWLDW
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Atalanta won 0–1.

Shots
1211
Shots on target
12
Expected goals
0.651.82
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atalanta beat Milan 1–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Atalanta): shots 12–11, shots on target 1–2, expected goals 0.65–1.82, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots11 shotsMilan 12 shots, Atalanta 11 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot2 shotsMilan 1 shot, Atalanta 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.65 xG1.82 xGMilan 0.65 xG, Atalanta 1.82 xG
  • Possession48%52%Milan 48%, Atalanta 52%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersMilan 7 corners, Atalanta 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls7 foulsMilan 8 fouls, Atalanta 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Youssouf Fofana · Milan · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafael Tolói · Atalanta · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 55′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoão Félix · Milan · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 25′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoão Félix · Milan · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 35′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 44′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 62′ · 0.34 xG · goalMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 74′ · 0.89 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 12 shots, 1 on target, 0.62 xG. Atalanta: 11 shots, 2 on target, 1.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Éderson · Atalanta · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.62 xG · Atalanta 1.78 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Milan
2Draws
2Atalanta
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A2–1
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A1–1
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A3–2
Milan — Atalanta · Serie A2–0
Atalanta — Milan · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Atalanta in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan33 matchesAtalanta33 matches
1.55 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 2 goals/match
1.15 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 0.91 goals/match
1.71 xG/matchExpected goals33/331.71 xG/match
15.1 shots/match ▲Shots33/3314.2 shots/match
5.3 shots/matchShots on target33/335.12 shots/match
54.5%Possession33/33● 55.3%
6.03 corners/match ●Corners33/334.91 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls33/3311.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanAtalanta
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headMilan — Atalanta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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