PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Wed, 23 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariFiorentina
Shots8 shots/match8 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.29 xG/match0.74 xG/match▲
Possession48%52%●
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMichel Adopo · Cagliari · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNadir Zortea · Cagliari · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRăzvan Marin · Cagliari · 75′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDodô · Fiorentina · 27′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 34′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 7′ · 0.11 xG · goalLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 48′ · 0.12 xG · goalRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 36′ · 0.13 xG · goalAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 27′ · 0.26 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.27 xG. Fiorentina: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Roberto Piccoli · Cagliari · 7′Robin Gosens · Fiorentina · 36′Lucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 0.27 xG · Fiorentina 0.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cagliari's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible home split

moderate

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari
1Draws
4Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A2–3
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A3–0
Cagliari — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Cagliari · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 10 · 3 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 33/33▲1.55 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/33▲1 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 33/33▲1.27 xG/match
1.52 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 33/33▲1.09 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 33/3311.5 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/33▲11.7 shots/match
3.27 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 33/33▲4.42 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 33/33▲3.91 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 33/33●49.6%
4.88 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/333.88 corners/match
4.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 33/33▲4.15 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3311.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/33▲36%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 33/33▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari27.5
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari30.8
Fiorentina58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari35.8
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari62.5
Fiorentina32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari72.5
Fiorentina32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari67.5
Fiorentina12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari50
Fiorentina37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cagliari33 matchesFiorentina33 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲1.55 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲1 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲1.27 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots33/3311.5 shots/match
3.27 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲4.42 shots/match
45.3%Possession33/33●49.6%
4.88 corners/match●Corners33/333.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls33/3311.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cagliari17 matchesFiorentina16 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored17/16▲1.5 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed17/16▲1.13 goals/match
1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals17/161.1 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots17/1610.8 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target17/164.13 shots/match
45.7%Possession17/16●51.3%
5.65 corners/match●Corners17/163.38 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFouls17/1611.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 23 Apr 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match