PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Mon, 28 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHellas VeronaCagliari
Shots6 shots/match6 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.3 xG/match1.94 xG/match▲
Possession55%●45%
Corners2 corners/match3 corners/match●
Fouls14 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Tomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Mosquera · Hellas Verona · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRăzvan Marin · Cagliari · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichel Adopo · Cagliari · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 41′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRăzvan Marin · Cagliari · 20′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDaniel Mosquera · Hellas Verona · 52′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMathis Lambourde · Hellas Verona · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Mosquera · Hellas Verona · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 30′ · 0.47 xG · goalZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 18′ · 0.48 xG · on targetAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hellas Verona: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.30 xG. Cagliari: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 30′Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hellas Verona 0.30 xG · Cagliari 1.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.94 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.94 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Hellas Verona
2Draws
1Cagliari
Cagliari — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0
Cagliari — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–1
Hellas Verona — Cagliari · Serie A2–0
Cagliari — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–2
Hellas Verona — Cagliari · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Hellas Verona favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 7 · 5 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.03 goals/match
1.82 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.44 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/34▲1.15 xG/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/341.48 xG/match
10 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲11.3 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/3413.1 shots/match
2.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/34▲3.29 shots/match
4.74 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/34▲4.12 shots/match
38.8%Possessionseason · 34/34●45.3%
4.12 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●4.82 corners/match
5.09 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/344.85 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
15 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3413.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3418%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/34▲59%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona2.5
Cagliari27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona17.5
Cagliari30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona19.2
Cagliari35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona82.5
Cagliari57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona97.5
Cagliari67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona27.5
Cagliari67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona37.5
Cagliari48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Hellas Verona34 matchesCagliari34 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.03 goals/match
1.82 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲1.44 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲1.15 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots34/34▲11.3 shots/match
2.65 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲3.29 shots/match
38.8%Possession34/34●45.3%
4.12 corners/matchCorners34/34●4.82 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15 fouls/matchFouls34/3413.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Hellas Verona17 matchesCagliari17 matches
0.76 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲0.88 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲1.35 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals17/171.06 xG/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots17/178.94 shots/match
2.71 shots/matchShots on target17/172.65 shots/match
40.6%Possession17/17●44.9%
4.88 corners/match●Corners17/174 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.09 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 28 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHellas VeronaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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