PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

Osasuna

LLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridOsasuna
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals3.46 xG/match▲0.46 xG/match
Possession67%●33%
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rubén García · Osasuna · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 78′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPablo Ibáñez · Osasuna · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJesús Areso · Osasuna · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJon Moncayola · Osasuna · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRubén Peña · Osasuna · 57′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJoselu · Real Madrid · 70′ · 0.14 xG · goalJoselu · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 9′ · 0.22 xG · goalRodrygo · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 45′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.40 xG · goalJoselu · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.82 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 65′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 19 shots, 9 on target, 3.54 xG. Osasuna: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 9′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 54′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 65′Joselu · Real Madrid · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 3.54 xG · Osasuna 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.4 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Osasuna11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridOsasunaBaseline
Shots18.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Osasuna have a visible away split

moderate

Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Osasuna's recent record differs from the season

weak

Osasuna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Real Madrid
2Draws
0Osasuna
Osasuna — Real Madrid · La Liga0–2
Real Madrid — Osasuna · La Liga1–1
Osasuna — Real Madrid · La Liga1–3
Real Madrid — Osasuna · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Osasuna in 0 · 3 too close

2.22 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/91 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 9/91.56 goals/match
1.98 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/91.04 xG/match
1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 9/91.55 xG/match
18.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/911.2 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/912.3 shots/match
7.78 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 9/93.11 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 9/93.89 shots/match
58.7%●Possessionseason · 9/946.1%
6.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 9/94.56 corners/match
3.44 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 9/94.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/910.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/933%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 9/956%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid87.5
Osasuna22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid94.2
Osasuna18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid89.2
Osasuna51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid97.5
Osasuna37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid7.5
Osasuna12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5
Osasuna50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid73.8
Osasuna24.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid9 matchesOsasuna9 matches
2.22 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
1.98 xG/match▲Expected goals9/91.04 xG/match
18.4 shots/match▲Shots9/911.2 shots/match
7.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.11 shots/match
58.7%●Possession9/946.1%
6.33 corners/match●Corners9/94.56 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/910.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid4 matchesOsasuna5 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored4/51.6 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/51.6 goals/match
2.5 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.98 xG/match
20.8 shots/match▲Shots4/58.6 shots/match
9.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/52.8 shots/match
60.5%●Possession4/544.8%
6.75 corners/match●Corners4/52.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/511.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridOsasuna
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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