PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Real Madrid 5–1 Valencia · La Liga

5–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 5–1.

Shots
1610
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
1.751.71
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Valencia 5–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Valencia): shots 16–10, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 1.75–1.71, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.4% ●PossessionReal Madrid · Valencia47.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridValenciaBaseline
Possession57.4%47.5%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots10 shotsReal Madrid 16 shots, Valencia 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsReal Madrid 7 shots, Valencia 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.75 xG1.71 xGReal Madrid 1.75 xG, Valencia 1.71 xG
  • Possession56%44%Real Madrid 56%, Valencia 44%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersReal Madrid 4 corners, Valencia 4 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls26 foulsReal Madrid 7 fouls, Valencia 26 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

David Alaba · Real Madrid · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 12′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 78′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJavier Guerra · Valencia · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 3′ · 0.02 xG · goalHugo González · Valencia · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.03 xG · goalJavier Guerra · Valencia · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavid Alaba · Real Madrid · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDiego López · Valencia · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSergi Canós · Valencia · 21′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCristhian Mosquera · Valencia · 27′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.09 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 10′ · 0.25 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 42′ · 0.26 xG · goalHugo Duro · Valencia · 88′ · 0.26 xG · goalRodrygo · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.29 xG · goalHugo Duro · Valencia · 15′ · 0.35 xG · on targetRodrygo · Real Madrid · 50′ · 0.45 xG · goalHugo Duro · Valencia · 41′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 16 shots, 7 on target, 1.73 xG. Valencia: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Dani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 3′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 42′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 49′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 50′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 84′Hugo Duro · Valencia · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 1.73 xG · Valencia 1.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Real Madrid
0Draws
1Valencia
Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga1–0
Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga2–0
Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga4–1
Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Valencia in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid13 matchesValencia13 matches
2.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.23 goals/match
0.69 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/131.38 goals/match
1.89 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.16 xG/match
17.8 shots/match ▲Shots13/1310.5 shots/match
7 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.85 shots/match
57.4% ●Possession13/1347.5%
6.23 corners/match ●Corners13/133.38 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridValencia
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Valencia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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