PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Thu, 4 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Osasuna

LDDWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOsasunaAlmería
Shots14 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.27 xG/match▲0.21 xG/match
Possession52%●48%
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Chimy Ávila · Osasuna · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIker Muñoz · Osasuna · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIker Muñoz · Osasuna · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAimar Oroz · Osasuna · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 48′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 55′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Catena · Osasuna · 22′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Catena · Osasuna · 24′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 39′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 27′ · 0.21 xG · goalJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 85′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Osasuna: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.25 xG. Almería: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ante Budimir · Osasuna · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Osasuna 1.25 xG · Almería 0.22 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Almería's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Almería's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible away split

moderate

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Osasuna
0Draws
0Almería
Osasuna — Almería · La Liga3–1
Almería — Osasuna · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Osasuna favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Almería in 3 · 2 too close

1.16 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191 goals/match
1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/192.26 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲1.32 xG/match
1.35 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 19/191.8 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲12.3 shots/match
11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1916.2 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.32 shots/match
3.63 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/195.32 shots/match
48.8%●Possessionseason · 19/1947.7%
4.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●4.95 corners/match
4.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/195.79 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1912.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1911%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1968%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Osasuna47.5
Almería37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Osasuna35
Almería41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Osasuna61.7
Almería4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Osasuna32.5
Almería52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Osasuna72.5
Almería32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Osasuna32.5
Almería67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Osasuna40.6
Almería49.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Osasuna19 matchesAlmería19 matches
1.16 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191 goals/match
1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/192.26 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲1.32 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots19/19▲12.3 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.32 shots/match
48.8%●Possession19/1947.7%
4.11 corners/matchCorners19/19●4.95 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Osasuna10 matchesAlmería10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.02 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/103.4 shots/match
48.5%●Possession10/1042.8%
5.3 corners/match●Corners10/105.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 4 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOsasunaAlmería
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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