PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Thu, 4 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLas PalmasBarcelona
Shots12 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.67 xG/match2.51 xG/match▲
Possession45%55%●
Corners5 corners/match10 corners/match●
Fouls14 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Javier Muñoz · Las Palmas · 28′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEnzo Loiodice · Las Palmas · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFerran Torres · Barcelona · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPejiño · Las Palmas · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPejiño · Las Palmas · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Balde · Barcelona · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedİlkay Gündoğan · Barcelona · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVitor Roque · Barcelona · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMika Mármol · Las Palmas · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSandro Ramírez · Las Palmas · 23′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFrenkie de Jong · Barcelona · 60′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMarc Cardona · Las Palmas · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVitor Roque · Barcelona · 80′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas · 8′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoão Félix · Barcelona · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFerran Torres · Barcelona · 56′ · 0.15 xG · goalRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 15′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMunir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 12′ · 0.21 xG · goalİlkay Gündoğan · Barcelona · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goalVitor Roque · Barcelona · 90′ · 0.85 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Las Palmas: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.66 xG. Barcelona: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.54 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Munir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 12′Ferran Torres · Barcelona · 56′İlkay Gündoğan · Barcelona · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Las Palmas 0.66 xG · Barcelona 2.54 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Barcelona's recent record differs from the season

weak

Barcelona's last-five shots average is above their season average.

21 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots21 shots/match16.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match▲ShotsLas Palmas · Barcelona16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLas PalmasBarcelonaBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match16.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Las Palmas favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Barcelona in 10 · 2 too close

0.84 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.16 goals/match
0.84 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 19/19▲2.31 xG/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.07 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲16.8 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲10.6 shots/match
3.21 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲6.47 shots/match
4.74 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.79 shots/match
58.3%Possessionseason · 19/19●64.6%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/19●6.53 corners/match
6.26 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲3.58 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲37%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Las Palmas87.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Las Palmas10.8
Barcelona91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Las Palmas55.8
Barcelona80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Las Palmas2.5
Barcelona57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Las Palmas17.5
Barcelona12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Las Palmas22.5
Barcelona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Las Palmas15
Barcelona76.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Las Palmas19 matchesBarcelona19 matches
0.84 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.89 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.16 goals/match
0.84 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲2.31 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots19/19▲16.8 shots/match
3.21 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲6.47 shots/match
58.3%Possession19/19●64.6%
4 corners/matchCorners19/19●6.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Las Palmas9 matchesBarcelona9 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.67 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.22 goals/match
0.98 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲2.19 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.9 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲6 shots/match
60.9%Possession9/9●65.8%
4.89 corners/matchCorners9/9●5.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls9/910.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/115.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 5 Jan 2024, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLas PalmasBarcelona
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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