La Liga · 2023Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

DLLWL

1–2Full-time recap

Barcelona

WLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Barcelona
Shots	13 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.75 xG/match	1.53 xG/match▲
Possession	34%	66%●
Corners	2 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.74 xG. Barcelona: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 0.74 xG · Barcelona 1.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.8 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.6%PossessionCelta Vigo · Barcelona●65.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Celta Vigo	Barcelona	Baseline
Possession	43.6%	65.1%	49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Celta Vigo have a visible home split

moderate

Celta Vigo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.6 shots/match	12.6 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Celta Vigo

1Draws

3Barcelona

23 Sept 2023Barcelona — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–2

4 Jun 2023Celta Vigo — Barcelona · La Liga2–1

9 Oct 2022Barcelona — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–0

10 May 2022Barcelona — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–1

6 Nov 2021Celta Vigo — Barcelona · La Liga3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Barcelona in 11 · 2 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 25/25▲2.08 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.36 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/25▲2.24 xG/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/25▲1.11 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 25/25▲16.1 shots/match

12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 25/25▲10.8 shots/match

4.16 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 25/25▲6.24 shots/match

4.4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 25/25▲3.8 shots/match

43.6%Possessionseason · 25/25●65.1%

5.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 25/25●6.4 corners/match

5.04 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 25/25▲3.76 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 25/2510.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 25/25▲32%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 25/25▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo12.5

Barcelona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo47.5

Barcelona90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo39.2

Barcelona66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo92.5

Barcelona52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5

Barcelona7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo72.5

Barcelona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo53.8

Barcelona72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo25 matchesBarcelona25 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲2.08 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲1.36 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲2.24 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲16.1 shots/match

4.16 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲6.24 shots/match

43.6%Possession25/25●65.1%

5.2 corners/matchCorners25/25●6.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo13 matchesBarcelona12 matches

0.69 goals/matchGoals scored13/12▲2 goals/match

1.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/121.25 goals/match

1.42 xG/matchExpected goals13/12▲2.12 xG/match

14.6 shots/matchShots13/1213.9 shots/match

4.15 shots/matchShots on target13/12▲5.58 shots/match

47.4%Possession13/12●65.5%

6.62 corners/match●Corners13/125.42 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1210.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4