PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid · La Liga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid drew 1–1.

Shots
811
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.161.12
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Rayo Vallecano – Real Madrid): shots 8–11, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.16–1.12, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Real Madrid16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoReal MadridBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match10 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.3%PossessionRayo Vallecano · Real Madrid● 59%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoReal MadridBaseline
Possession48.3%59%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots11 shotsRayo Vallecano 8 shots, Real Madrid 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsRayo Vallecano 3 shots, Real Madrid 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG1.12 xGRayo Vallecano 1.16 xG, Real Madrid 1.12 xG
  • Possession40%60%Rayo Vallecano 40%, Real Madrid 60%
  • Corners4 corners10 cornersRayo Vallecano 4 corners, Real Madrid 10 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls7 foulsRayo Vallecano 17 fouls, Real Madrid 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pacha · Rayo Vallecano · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFran García · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 43′ · 0.05 xG · on targetToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.05 xG · on targetÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 24′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 46′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 11′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 59′ · 0.16 xG · on targetJoselu · Real Madrid · 3′ · 0.46 xG · goalRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 27′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.19 xG. Real Madrid: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Raúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 27′Joselu · Real Madrid · 3′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.19 xG · Real Madrid 1.11 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Rayo Vallecano
1Draws
3Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–2
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga0–1
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano25 matchesReal Madrid25 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.12 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 0.64 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.85 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 16.3 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 6.16 shots/match
48.3%Possession25/25● 59%
4.28 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.96 corners/match
15.5 fouls/matchFouls25/2510 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoReal Madrid
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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