PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Fri, 23 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal SociedadVillarreal
Shots21 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals1.48 xG/match▲1.09 xG/match
Possession70%●30%
Corners13 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Raúl Albiol · Villarreal · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndré Silva · Real Sociedad · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJon Ander Olasagasti · Real Sociedad · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJon Ander Olasagasti · Real Sociedad · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Silva · Real Sociedad · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTakefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTakefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndré Silva · Real Sociedad · 48′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTakefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMartín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJon Ander Olasagasti · Real Sociedad · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHamari Traoré · Real Sociedad · 37′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIlias Akhomach · Villarreal · 58′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 40′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMartín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAndré Silva · Real Sociedad · 14′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 90′ · 0.16 xG · goalGonçalo Guedes · Villarreal · 16′ · 0.22 xG · on targetSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 17′ · 0.31 xG · goalSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 47′ · 0.31 xG · goalSheraldo Becker · Real Sociedad · 86′ · 0.31 xG · on targetMikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 86′ · 0.31 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Sociedad: 21 shots, 7 on target, 1.58 xG. Villarreal: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad · 86′Santi Comesaña · Villarreal · 17′Santi Comesaña · Villarreal · 47′Alexander Sørloth · Villarreal · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Sociedad 1.58 xG · Villarreal 1.08 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Sociedad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Sociedad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.35 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.35 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.92 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.92 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Real Sociedad show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Real Sociedad's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsReal Sociedad · Villarreal11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal SociedadVillarrealBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Real Sociedad
0Draws
2Villarreal
Villarreal — Real Sociedad · La Liga0–3
Villarreal — Real Sociedad · La Liga2–0
Real Sociedad — Villarreal · La Liga1–0
Villarreal — Real Sociedad · La Liga1–2
Real Sociedad — Villarreal · La Liga1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Sociedad favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 4 · 2 too close

1.35 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.46 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.85 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/26▲1.43 xG/match
1.05 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 26/261.63 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2611.8 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 26/2615.5 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲4.31 shots/match
3.58 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/265.92 shots/match
55.9%●Possessionseason · 26/2650.4%
4.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/26●5.04 corners/match
3.88 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 26/265.73 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
16.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2613 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2612%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Sociedad77.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Sociedad57.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Sociedad85.8
Villarreal5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Sociedad17.5
Villarreal32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad92.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Sociedad52.5
Villarreal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Sociedad62.5
Villarreal53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Sociedad26 matchesVillarreal26 matches
1.35 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.46 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.85 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲1.43 xG/match
12.7 shots/match▲Shots26/2611.8 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲4.31 shots/match
55.9%●Possession26/2650.4%
4.96 corners/matchCorners26/26●5.04 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
16.4 fouls/matchFouls26/2613 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Sociedad13 matchesVillarreal13 matches
1.46 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.46 goals/match
1.15 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.92 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.19 xG/match
13.3 shots/match▲Shots13/138.92 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target13/133.85 shots/match
56.3%●Possession13/1346.7%
5.08 corners/match●Corners13/133.69 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal SociedadVillarreal
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Real Sociedad vs Villarreal — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath