La Liga · 2023Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

LDWLW

0–0Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

DLDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	13 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	0 shots/match	2 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.78 xG/match▲	0.58 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	3 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 13 shots, 0 on target, 0.76 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 0.76 xG · Rayo Vallecano 0.60 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.2 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible away split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.81 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.81 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Celta Vigo

3Draws

0Rayo Vallecano

11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

11 Mar 2023Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0

10 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

5 Feb 2022Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–0

1 Nov 2021Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 5 · 4 too close

1.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/300.83 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.27 goals/match

1.23 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/301.11 xG/match

1.47 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.26 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3011.8 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/3012.1 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲4.2 shots/match

4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲4.27 shots/match

45.1%Possessionseason · 30/30●48.4%

5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.13 corners/match

5.07 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/304.87 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3015.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲37%

63%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3057%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo27.5

Rayo Vallecano47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo49.2

Rayo Vallecano36.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo31.7

Rayo Vallecano45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo92.5

Rayo Vallecano47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5

Rayo Vallecano87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo57.5

Rayo Vallecano17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo50

Rayo Vallecano51.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo30 matchesRayo Vallecano30 matches

1.07 goals/match▲Goals scored30/300.83 goals/match

1.47 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.27 goals/match

1.23 xG/match▲Expected goals30/301.11 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots30/3011.8 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲4.2 shots/match

45.1%Possession30/30●48.4%

5 corners/match●Corners30/304.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls30/3015.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo15 matchesRayo Vallecano16 matches

0.67 goals/matchGoals scored15/160.69 goals/match

1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed15/16▲1 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals15/160.97 xG/match

14.5 shots/match▲Shots15/169.81 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target15/163.5 shots/match

49.6%●Possession15/1646.4%

6.4 corners/match●Corners15/162.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls15/1614.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 30home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4