PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 4 May 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMallorcaAtlético Madrid
Shots7 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Expected goals0.24 xG/match0.72 xG/match▲
Possession59%●41%
Corners6 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 25′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSergi Darder · Mallorca · 57′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJavi Llabrés · Mallorca · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetVedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAxel Witsel · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCyle Larin · Mallorca · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAntonio Raíllo · Mallorca · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÁngel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 5′ · 0.08 xG · goalVedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 37′ · 0.08 xG · on targetCyle Larin · Mallorca · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMario Hermoso · Atlético Madrid · 30′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 54′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Mallorca: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.25 xG. Atlético Madrid: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Rodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 5′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Mallorca 0.25 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Mallorca's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Mallorca's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Mallorca's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Mallorca
0Draws
2Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid — Mallorca · La Liga1–0
Atlético Madrid — Mallorca · La Liga3–1
Mallorca — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–0
Mallorca — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–0
Atlético Madrid — Mallorca · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Mallorca favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 8 · 4 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲1.85 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/341.15 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/34▲1.66 xG/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.07 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲12.6 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/34▲12.1 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/34▲5.53 shots/match
4.03 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/343.88 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 34/34●50.6%
4.44 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●4.59 corners/match
4.21 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/344.94 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
15.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3411.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/34▲29%
56%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/34▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Mallorca22.5
Atlético Madrid72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Mallorca15.8
Atlético Madrid82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Mallorca54.2
Atlético Madrid67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Mallorca42.5
Atlético Madrid62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Mallorca82.5
Atlético Madrid27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Mallorca42.5
Atlético Madrid47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Mallorca41.2
Atlético Madrid60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Mallorca34 matchesAtlético Madrid34 matches
0.79 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲1.85 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed34/341.15 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲1.66 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots34/34▲12.6 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲5.53 shots/match
44.3%Possession34/34●50.6%
4.44 corners/matchCorners34/34●4.59 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.3 fouls/matchFouls34/3411.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Mallorca17 matchesAtlético Madrid17 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1.35 goals/match
0.82 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.24 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.27 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots17/17▲11.5 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.41 shots/match
47.2%Possession17/17●52.5%
5.82 corners/match●Corners17/175.12 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 May 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMallorcaAtlético Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Mallorca vs Atlético Madrid — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath