PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoAtlético Madrid
Shots16 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.85 xG/match▲0.53 xG/match
Possession55%●45%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 69′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJames Rodríguez · Rayo Vallecano · 83′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAxel Witsel · Atlético Madrid · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNahuel Molina · Atlético Madrid · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 3′ · 0.06 xG · on targetConor Gallagher · Atlético Madrid · 50′ · 0.06 xG · goalCésar Azpilicueta · Atlético Madrid · 14′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 31′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÁngel Correa · Atlético Madrid · 89′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 25′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 35′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.80 xG. Atlético Madrid: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Isi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 35′Conor Gallagher · Atlético Madrid · 50′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.80 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.52 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atlético Madrid have a visible away split

weak

Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.33 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.33 shots/match13 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rayo Vallecano
1Draws
4Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–7
Rayo Vallecano — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–2
Atlético Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1
Rayo Vallecano — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 10 · 3 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/6▲1.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.5 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 6/6▲1.72 xG/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 6/6▲0.73 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/6▲13 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/6▲9.83 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/6▲4.67 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/6▲2.33 shots/match
49.2%Possessionseason · 6/6●50.7%
5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 6/64.33 corners/match
5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/6▲3.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
15.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/610 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/6▲67%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/683%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano52.5
Atlético Madrid57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano58.3
Atlético Madrid71.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Atlético Madrid90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Atlético Madrid67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano95
Atlético Madrid22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Atlético Madrid30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano67.5
Atlético Madrid47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano6 matchesAtlético Madrid6 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲1.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲0.5 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲1.72 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲13 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲4.67 shots/match
49.2%Possession6/6●50.7%
5 corners/match●Corners6/64.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.5 fouls/matchFouls6/610 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano3 matchesAtlético Madrid3 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored3/31.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲1 goals/match
1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.12 xG/match
13.7 shots/match▲Shots3/39.33 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33.67 shots/match
52%●Possession3/349%
5.33 corners/match●Corners3/33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls3/311 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Sept 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoAtlético Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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