PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeganésCelta Vigo
Shots7 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.62 xG/match▲0.92 xG/match
Possession39%61%●
Corners4 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Dani Raba · Leganés · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIlaix Moriba · Celta Vigo · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSeydouba Cisse · Leganés · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 24′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHugo Sotelo · Celta Vigo · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Alonso · Celta Vigo · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 21′ · 0.05 xG · on targetIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 43′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 71′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 38′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJuan Cruz · Leganés · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedWilliot Swedberg · Celta Vigo · 64′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 88′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMiguel de la Fuente · Leganés · 60′ · 0.20 xG · on targetDiego García · Leganés · 59′ · 0.28 xG · goalSergio González · Leganés · 82′ · 0.47 xG · goalDarko Brašanac · Leganés · 78′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Leganés: 7 shots, 4 on target, 1.58 xG. Celta Vigo: 18 shots, 5 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Diego García · Leganés · 59′Darko Brašanac · Leganés · 78′Sergio González · Leganés · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Leganés 1.58 xG · Celta Vigo 0.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.09 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Celta Vigo have a visible away split

moderate

Celta Vigo's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Leganés show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Leganés's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.36 shots/match▲ShotsLeganés · Celta Vigo11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeganésCelta VigoBaseline
Shots8.36 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match12 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Leganés favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 9 · 2 too close

0.82 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.55 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 11/111.82 goals/match
0.74 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 11/11▲1.38 xG/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.22 xG/match
8.36 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/11▲11.9 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲12 shots/match
2.36 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/11▲4.73 shots/match
4.55 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4 shots/match
43.7%Possessionseason · 11/11●53.9%
2.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/11●3.73 corners/match
5.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.82 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
27%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/119%
55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲82%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leganés22.5
Celta Vigo67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leganés11.7
Celta Vigo67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leganés32.5
Celta Vigo31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leganés12.5
Celta Vigo32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leganés72.5
Celta Vigo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leganés2.5
Celta Vigo7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leganés22.5
Celta Vigo40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Leganés11 matchesCelta Vigo11 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.55 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.82 goals/match
0.74 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.38 xG/match
8.36 shots/matchShots11/11▲11.9 shots/match
2.36 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.73 shots/match
43.7%Possession11/11●53.9%
2.82 corners/matchCorners11/11●3.73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Leganés5 matchesCelta Vigo5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.48 xG/match
9.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
48%Possession5/5●54.6%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/5●3.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.95 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.75 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeganésCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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