PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBarcelonaAtlético Madrid
Shots19 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.72 xG/match▲0.63 xG/match
Possession63%●37%
Corners11 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Clément Lenglet · Atlético Madrid · 53′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIñigo Martínez · Barcelona · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJulián Alvarez · Atlético Madrid · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIñigo Martínez · Barcelona · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPedri · Barcelona · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGavi · Barcelona · 25′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 60′ · 0.07 xG · goalPedri · Barcelona · 30′ · 0.10 xG · goalDani Olmo · Barcelona · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 4′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 57′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPablo Barrios · Atlético Madrid · 77′ · 0.17 xG · on targetRaphinha · Barcelona · 86′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPedri · Barcelona · 88′ · 0.21 xG · on targetRaphinha · Barcelona · 57′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedEric García · Barcelona · 84′ · 0.28 xG · on targetFermín López · Barcelona · 48′ · 0.40 xG · on targetAlexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 90′ · 0.44 xG · goalRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 76′ · 0.60 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Barcelona: 19 shots, 7 on target, 2.75 xG. Atlético Madrid: 5 shots, 4 on target, 0.70 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Pedri · Barcelona · 30′Rodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 60′Alexander Sørloth · Atlético Madrid · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 2.75 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.70 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match1.83 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible away split

moderate

Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.56 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.56 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Atlético Madrid11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaAtlético MadridBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match
Shots against8.74 shots/match10.2 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

5Barcelona
0Draws
0Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid — Barcelona · La Liga0–3
Barcelona — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–0
Barcelona — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–0
Atlético Madrid — Barcelona · La Liga0–1
Barcelona — Atlético Madrid · La Liga4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 5 · 3 too close

2.68 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/181.83 goals/match
1.16 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/18▲0.67 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 19/181.67 xG/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 19/18▲0.85 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1811.9 shots/match
8.74 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1810.2 shots/match
6.58 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/184.72 shots/match
3.42 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/18▲3 shots/match
67.2%●Possessionseason · 19/1851.7%
6.05 corners/match●Cornersseason · 19/185 corners/match
4.74 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/18▲3.72 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1811.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/18▲50%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1889%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5
Atlético Madrid62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona97.5
Atlético Madrid79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona74.2
Atlético Madrid85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona77.5
Atlético Madrid52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona2.5
Atlético Madrid12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona92.5
Atlético Madrid62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona72.5
Atlético Madrid56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Barcelona19 matchesAtlético Madrid18 matches
2.68 goals/match▲Goals scored19/181.83 goals/match
1.16 goals/matchGoals allowed19/18▲0.67 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goals19/181.67 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots19/1811.9 shots/match
6.58 shots/match▲Shots on target19/184.72 shots/match
67.2%●Possession19/1851.7%
6.05 corners/match●Corners19/185 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.11 fouls/matchFouls19/1811.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Barcelona8 matchesAtlético Madrid9 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.56 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed8/9▲0.67 goals/match
2.74 xG/match▲Expected goals8/91.15 xG/match
19 shots/match▲Shots8/98.56 shots/match
7.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.56 shots/match
71.3%●Possession8/946.6%
7.75 corners/match●Corners8/93.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
7.88 fouls/matchFouls8/910.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.29 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples19 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBarcelonaAtlético Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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