La Liga · 2024Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Atlético Madrid

DDWWL

2–4Full-time recap

Barcelona

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Barcelona
Shots	7 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.36 xG/match▲	1.26 xG/match
Possession	34%	66%●
Corners	6 corners/match	6 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.43 xG. Barcelona: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 1.43 xG · Barcelona 1.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsAtlético Madrid · Barcelona17 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Atlético Madrid	Barcelona	Baseline
Shots	11.6 shots/match	17 shots/match	11 shots/match
Shots against	11.1 shots/match	8.15 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.6 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	11 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible home split

moderate

Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.1 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	11 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Atlético Madrid

0Draws

4Barcelona

21 Dec 2024Barcelona — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–2

17 Mar 2024Atlético Madrid — Barcelona · La Liga0–3

3 Dec 2023Barcelona — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–0

23 Apr 2023Barcelona — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–0

8 Jan 2023Atlético Madrid — Barcelona · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Barcelona in 5 · 4 too close

1.64 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/27▲2.78 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/271 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 28/27▲2.43 xG/match

0.96 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/271.11 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/27▲17 shots/match

11.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/27▲8.15 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/27▲6.56 shots/match

3.11 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/273.07 shots/match

51%Possessionseason · 28/27●67.7%

4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/27●6.48 corners/match

3.96 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/274.41 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/279.15 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2730%

89%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2793%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid62.5

Barcelona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid71.7

Barcelona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid77.5

Barcelona87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid37.5

Barcelona67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid12.5

Barcelona7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid47.5

Barcelona97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid48.8

Barcelona75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid28 matchesBarcelona27 matches

1.64 goals/matchGoals scored28/27▲2.78 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/271 goals/match

1.6 xG/matchExpected goals28/27▲2.43 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots28/27▲17 shots/match

4.32 shots/matchShots on target28/27▲6.56 shots/match

51%Possession28/27●67.7%

4.75 corners/matchCorners28/27●6.48 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls28/279.15 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atlético Madrid15 matchesBarcelona15 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲2.8 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.2 goals/match

1.97 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲2.2 xG/match

14.1 shots/matchShots15/15▲15.1 shots/match

5.33 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲6 shots/match

52.9%Possession15/15●65.3%

6 corners/match●Corners15/155.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls15/159.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.2 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 17 Mar 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4