La Liga · 2024

Real Madrid 3–2 Celta Vigo · La Liga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 3–2.

Shots
1714
Shots on target
67
Expected goals
2.121.85
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Celta Vigo 3–2. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Celta Vigo): shots 17–14, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 2.12–1.85, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.03 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Celta Vigo11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridCelta VigoBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match11.7 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots14 shotsReal Madrid 17 shots, Celta Vigo 14 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shotsReal Madrid 6 shots, Celta Vigo 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.12 xG1.85 xGReal Madrid 2.12 xG, Celta Vigo 1.85 xG
  • Possession54%46%Real Madrid 54%, Celta Vigo 46%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersReal Madrid 4 corners, Celta Vigo 6 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls11 foulsReal Madrid 5 fouls, Celta Vigo 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Óscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 42′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIlaix Moriba · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 33′ · 0.02 xG · goalHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFran García · Real Madrid · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Durán · Celta Vigo · 69′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 39′ · 0.06 xG · goalHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Alonso · Celta Vigo · 7′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 87′ · 0.10 xG · on targetPablo Durán · Celta Vigo · 79′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFer López · Celta Vigo · 68′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Alonso · Celta Vigo · 5′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 8′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.28 xG · on targetArda Güler · Real Madrid · 29′ · 0.33 xG · on targetBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 89′ · 0.38 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 48′ · 0.40 xG · goalWilliot Swedberg · Celta Vigo · 76′ · 0.46 xG · goalJavi Rodríguez · Celta Vigo · 69′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.20 xG. Celta Vigo: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.85 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Arda Güler · Real Madrid · 33′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 39′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 48′Javi Rodríguez · Celta Vigo · 69′Williot Swedberg · Celta Vigo · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.20 xG · Celta Vigo 1.85 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Real Madrid
0Draws
0Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2
Real Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga4–0
Celta Vigo — Real Madrid · La Liga0–1
Real Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–0
Celta Vigo — Real Madrid · La Liga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid34 matchesCelta Vigo34 matches
2.03 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/341.53 goals/match
0.97 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/341.53 goals/match
1.98 xG/match ▲Expected goals34/341.45 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots34/3411.7 shots/match
6.38 shots/match ▲Shots on target34/344.71 shots/match
60.7% ●Possession34/3453.7%
5.79 corners/match ●Corners34/343.82 corners/match
8.74 fouls/matchFouls34/3412.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

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