La Liga · 2024Sun, 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

LWLWW

1–2Full-time recap

Rayo Vallecano

DLWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano
Shots	24 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.64 xG/match▲	1.03 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	9 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 24 shots, 7 on target, 2.73 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 2.73 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.21 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano.

4.96 days▲Rest daysCelta Vigo · Rayo Vallecano3 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano	Baseline
Rest days	4.96 days	3 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.54 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Celta Vigo

3Draws

1Rayo Vallecano

10 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–1

31 Mar 2024Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–0

11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

11 Mar 2023Celta Vigo — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0

10 Nov 2022Rayo Vallecano — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 3 · 2 too close

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 37/371.11 goals/match

1.51 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/37▲1.22 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 37/371.18 xG/match

1.15 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 37/371.32 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/37▲13.2 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 37/3712.4 shots/match

4.68 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/374.27 shots/match

3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 37/374.19 shots/match

53.5%●Possessionseason · 37/3751.5%

3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/37●5.16 corners/match

4.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 37/375.11 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3713.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲24%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3778%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo77.5

Rayo Vallecano62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo72.5

Rayo Vallecano64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo44.2

Rayo Vallecano44.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo37.5

Rayo Vallecano72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo50

Rayo Vallecano87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo15

Rayo Vallecano75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo51.2

Rayo Vallecano76.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo37 matchesRayo Vallecano37 matches

1.54 goals/match▲Goals scored37/371.11 goals/match

1.51 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲1.22 goals/match

1.46 xG/match▲Expected goals37/371.18 xG/match

11.8 shots/matchShots37/37▲13.2 shots/match

4.68 shots/match▲Shots on target37/374.27 shots/match

53.5%●Possession37/3751.5%

3.86 corners/matchCorners37/37●5.16 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls37/3713.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo19 matchesRayo Vallecano19 matches

1.68 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.89 goals/match

1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1 goals/match

1.51 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.03 xG/match

12.4 shots/match▲Shots19/1911.4 shots/match

5.32 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.16 shots/match

54.1%●Possession19/1948.3%

4.47 corners/matchCorners19/19●4.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1914.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 May 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4