Premier League · 2023Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Aston Villa

WWLWW

6–1Full-time recap

Brighton & Hove Albion

WLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Aston Villa	Brighton & Hove Albion
Shots	19 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.58 xG/match	1.71 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	1 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	19 fouls/match	21 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Brighton & Hove Albion have a visible away split

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.3 shots/match	16.7 shots/match	14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brighton & Hove Albion's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brighton & Hove Albion's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.71 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	2.71 goals/match	1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Brighton & Hove Albion have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.3%PossessionAston Villa · Brighton & Hove Albion●62.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Aston Villa	Brighton & Hove Albion	Baseline
Possession	48.3%	62.7%	49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Aston Villa

0Draws

0Brighton & Hove Albion

28 May 2023Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–1

13 Nov 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2

26 Feb 2022Brighton & Hove Albion — Aston Villa · Premier League0–2

20 Nov 2021Aston Villa — Brighton & Hove Albion · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Brighton & Hove Albion in 4 · 5 too close

2.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.71 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/72 goals/match

2 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/72.04 xG/match

1.64 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/71.68 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲16.7 shots/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/713 shots/match

6.14 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲7.29 shots/match

4.43 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/74.86 shots/match

48.3%Possessionseason · 7/7●62.7%

5.29 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●5.57 corners/match

4.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/74.57 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/712.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa42.5

Brighton & Hove Albion87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa71.7

Brighton & Hove Albion89.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa63.3

Brighton & Hove Albion40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa72.5

Brighton & Hove Albion32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa77.5

Brighton & Hove Albion87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa50

Brighton & Hove Albion62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa63.1

Brighton & Hove Albion80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa7 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion7 matches

2.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.71 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match

2 xG/matchExpected goals7/72.04 xG/match

14.9 shots/matchShots7/7▲16.7 shots/match

6.14 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.29 shots/match

48.3%Possession7/7●62.7%

5.29 corners/matchCorners7/7●5.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls7/712.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa3 matchesBrighton & Hove Albion3 matches

4.33 goals/match▲Goals scored3/32.67 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match

2.6 xG/match▲Expected goals3/31.88 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots3/312.3 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target3/36.33 shots/match

55%Possession3/3●57.3%

4 corners/match●Corners3/32.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls3/313.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.94 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4