PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea · Premier League

Arsenal

WWLDD
1–0Historical match

Chelsea

WLLWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 1–0.

Shots
128
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
0.770.35
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Chelsea 1–0. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Chelsea): shots 12–8, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 0.77–0.35, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.83 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.9 shots/match13.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.52 corners/match ●CornersArsenal · Chelsea5.97 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalChelseaBaseline
Corners6.52 corners/match5.97 corners/match4.97 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots8 shotsArsenal 12 shots, Chelsea 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsArsenal 4 shots, Chelsea 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG0.35 xGArsenal 0.77 xG, Chelsea 0.35 xG
  • Possession41%59%Arsenal 41%, Chelsea 59%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersArsenal 5 corners, Chelsea 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsArsenal 10 fouls, Chelsea 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Fernández · Chelsea · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Neto · Chelsea · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 20′ · 0.05 xG · goalLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 3′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeclan Rice · Arsenal · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMarc Cucurella · Chelsea · 85′ · 0.10 xG · on targetChristopher Nkunku · Chelsea · 37′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMikel Merino · Arsenal · 60′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 18′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.71 xG. Chelsea: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Mikel Merino · Arsenal · 20′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.71 xG · Chelsea 0.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Arsenal
2Draws
0Chelsea
Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League1–1
Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League5–0
Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League2–2
Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League3–1
Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Chelsea in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal29 matchesChelsea29 matches
1.83 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.83 goals/match
0.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.28 goals/match
1.58 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.95 xG/match
13.9 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 15.9 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 5.83 shots/match
55.8%Possession29/29● 58.3%
6.52 corners/match ●Corners29/295.97 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalChelsea
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headArsenal — Chelsea
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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