Premier League · 2024Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWLDD

1–0Full-time recap

Chelsea

WLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Chelsea
Shots	12 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.77 xG/match▲	0.35 xG/match
Possession	41%	59%●
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Arsenal: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.71 xG. Chelsea: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 0.71 xG · Chelsea 0.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Arsenal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.83 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.83 goals/match	1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal have a visible home split

moderate

Arsenal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.52 corners/match●CornersArsenal · Chelsea5.97 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	Arsenal	Chelsea	Baseline
Corners	6.52 corners/match	5.97 corners/match	4.97 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Arsenal

2Draws

0Chelsea

10 Nov 2024Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League1–1

23 Apr 2024Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League5–0

21 Oct 2023Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League2–2

2 May 2023Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League3–1

6 Nov 2022Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Chelsea in 3 · 4 too close

1.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/291.83 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.28 goals/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/29▲1.95 xG/match

0.86 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 29/291.39 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲15.9 shots/match

9.72 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 29/2910.9 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲5.83 shots/match

3.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 29/294.62 shots/match

55.8%Possessionseason · 29/29●58.3%

6.52 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/295.97 corners/match

2.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/293.52 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2911.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2921%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2983%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.5

Chelsea92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal69.2

Chelsea86.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal95.8

Chelsea63.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal37.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal57.5

Chelsea82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5

Chelsea67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal68.1

Chelsea82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Arsenal29 matchesChelsea29 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored29/291.83 goals/match

0.83 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.28 goals/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲1.95 xG/match

13.9 shots/matchShots29/29▲15.9 shots/match

4.83 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲5.83 shots/match

55.8%Possession29/29●58.3%

6.52 corners/match●Corners29/295.97 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls29/2911.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Arsenal14 matchesChelsea15 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored14/151.73 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/151.47 goals/match

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals14/151.8 xG/match

16.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1513.8 shots/match

6 shots/match▲Shots on target14/154.87 shots/match

57.4%Possession14/15●59.7%

7.71 corners/match●Corners14/155.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1511.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.98 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4