PitchMath
Saudi Pro League · 2026

Al-Hilal 3–0 Al-Ahli · Saudi Pro League

3–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Al-Hilal won 3–0.

Shots
1213
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.991.27
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Al-Hilal beat Al-Ahli 3–0. Recorded in this match (Al-Hilal – Al-Ahli): shots 12–13, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.99–1.27, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Al-Hilal, Al-Ahli.

4 days ▲Rest daysAl-Hilal · Al-Ahli3.08 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAl-HilalAl-AhliBaseline
Rest days4 days3.08 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Al-Hilal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Al-Hilal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19 shots/match ▲ShotsAl-Hilal · Al-Ahli14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAl-HilalAl-AhliBaseline
Shots19 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots13 shotsAl-Hilal 12 shots, Al-Ahli 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsAl-Hilal 6 shots, Al-Ahli 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.99 xG1.27 xGAl-Hilal 1.99 xG, Al-Ahli 1.27 xG
  • Possession56%44%Al-Hilal 56%, Al-Ahli 44%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersAl-Hilal 3 corners, Al-Ahli 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls9 foulsAl-Hilal 14 fouls, Al-Ahli 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards5 cardsAl-Hilal 2 cards, Al-Ahli 5 cards
  • Passes421 passes321 passesAl-Hilal 421 passes, Al-Ahli 321 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.2%82.9%Al-Hilal 87.2%, Al-Ahli 82.9%
  • Shots inside box7 shots10 shotsAl-Hilal 7 shots, Al-Ahli 10 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block3 blocksAl-Hilal 1 block, Al-Ahli 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesAl-Hilal 1 save, Al-Ahli 3 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides0 offsidesAl-Hilal 2 offsides, Al-Ahli 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 9′Sergej Milinković-SavićGoal · Al-Hilal
  2. 11′Roger IbañezYellow card · Al-Ahli
  3. 13′Mohamed Kader MeiteYellow card · Al-Hilal
  4. 15′Crysencio SummervilleYellow card · Al-Hilal
  5. 23′Crysencio SummervilleGoal · Al-Hilal
  6. 45′Ivan ToneyYellow card · Al-Ahli
  7. 45′Merih DemiralYellow card · Al-Ahli
  8. 45′Merih DemiralSecond yellow · Al-Ahli
  9. Half-time
  10. 48′Rayan HamedYellow card · Al-Ahli
  11. 86′Ollie WatkinsGoal · Al-Hilal
  12. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 30′Al-Hilal · 1 player changeHassan Tambakti
  • 46′Al-Ahli · 3 player changesMohammed Abdulrahman · Firas Al-Buraikan · Rayan Hamed
  • 46′Al-Hilal · 1 player changeOllie Watkins
  • 52′Al-Hilal · 1 player changeMoteb Al-Harbi
  • 82′Al-Ahli · 1 player changeMeshal Al Mutairi
  • 87′Al-Ahli · 1 player changeNaif Masoud
  • 89′Al-Hilal · 2 player changesSabri Abdu Dahal · Nawaf Al-Habashi

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Al-Hilal
3Draws
1Al-Ahli
Al-Ahli — Al-Hilal · King's Cup1–1
Al-Hilal — Al-Ahli · Saudi Pro League0–0
Al-Ahli — Al-Hilal · Saudi Pro League3–3
Al-Hilal — Al-Ahli · Saudi Pro League2–3
Al-Ahli — Al-Hilal · Saudi Pro League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Al-Hilal favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Al-Ahli in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Al-Hilal4 matchesAl-Ahli4 matches
3.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored4/41.5 goals/match
0.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/41.5 goals/match
3.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals4/41.58 xG/match
19 shots/match ▲Shots4/414.8 shots/match
7.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/44.75 shots/match
55% ●Possession4/451.3%
4.25 corners/match ●Corners4/43.5 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls4/412 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 1 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Saudi Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAl-HilalAl-Ahli
CompetitionSaudi Pro League
Head-to-headAl-Hilal — Al-Ahli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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