PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Watford 2–1 Southampton · Championship

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Watford won 2–1.

Shots
1617
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.831.65
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

Watford beat Southampton 2–1. Recorded in this match (Watford – Southampton): shots 16–17, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.83–1.65, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots17 shotsWatford 16 shots, Southampton 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsWatford 4 shots, Southampton 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.83 xG1.65 xGWatford 0.83 xG, Southampton 1.65 xG
  • Possession34%66%Watford 34%, Southampton 66%
  • Corners4 corners8 cornersWatford 4 corners, Southampton 8 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls9 foulsWatford 12 fouls, Southampton 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards6 cards3 cardsWatford 6 cards, Southampton 3 cards
  • Passes267 passes513 passesWatford 267 passes, Southampton 513 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.3%87.7%Watford 78.3%, Southampton 87.7%
  • Shots inside box11 shots11 shotsWatford 11 shots, Southampton 11 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks6 blocksWatford 7 blocks, Southampton 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesWatford 2 saves, Southampton 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesWatford 0 offsides, Southampton 3 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Edoardo Bove · Watford · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHector Kyprianou · Watford · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarc Bola · Watford · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCameron Bragg · Southampton · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJack Stephens · Southampton · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Southampton · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCyle Larin · Southampton · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOmar Haktab Traore · Watford · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFinn Azaz · Southampton · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKuryu Matsuki · Southampton · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 21′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHector Kyprianou · Watford · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIker Bravo · Watford · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRocco Vata · Watford · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEdo Kayembe · Watford · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFinn Azaz · Southampton · 71′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKuryu Matsuki · Southampton · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOthmane Maamma · Watford · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlynn Downes · Southampton · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmin Nabizada · Watford · 29′ · 0.08 xG · goalMatthew Pollock · Watford · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCyle Larin · Southampton · 58′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIker Bravo · Watford · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedIker Bravo · Watford · 12′ · 0.11 xG · goalLeo Scienza · Southampton · 36′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIker Bravo · Watford · 59′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedCyle Larin · Southampton · 56′ · 0.26 xG · goalJack Stephens · Southampton · 78′ · 0.30 xG · on targetTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 90′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Watford: 16 shots, 4 on target, 0.84 xG. Southampton: 17 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Iker Bravo · Watford · 12′Amin Nabizada · Watford · 29′Cyle Larin · Southampton · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Watford 0.84 xG · Southampton 1.64 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Watford
2Draws
2Southampton
Southampton — Watford · Championship1–0
Watford — Southampton · Championship2–2
Southampton — Watford · Championship3–2
Watford — Southampton · Championship1–1
Southampton — Watford · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Season-opening preview

Current-season evidence is still building.

This competition's new season has only just started, so PitchMath does not yet hold enough completed matches for a current-season grade. The comparison below is last season's recorded data, shown as historical context.

1 / 2 matches toward the first current-season grade

Current season so far

Completed matches in the season being played. Kept separate from the historical block below.

  • Watford1 matches
  • Southampton1 matches

Previous-season context

Recorded season totals from the source competition. Not current form.

Both clubs played the same competition and season, so these values are directly comparable.

Watford

Competition
Championship
Season
2025/26
Sample
46 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
23 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.15 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.41 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.23 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.16 xG/match
  • Shots13.9 shots/match
  • Shots allowed11.7 shots/match
  • Shots on target4.43 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed4.09 shots/match
  • Possession51.2%
  • Corners4.91 corners/match
  • Corners allowed5.17 corners/match
  • Fouls11 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency15%
  • Scoring frequency70%

Southampton

Competition
Championship
Season
2025/26
Sample
48 matches
Profile grade
A
Data cutoff
23 May 2026
  • Goals scored1.73 goals/match
  • Goals allowed1.19 goals/match
  • Expected goals1.64 xG/match
  • Expected goals allowed1.27 xG/match
  • Shots14.4 shots/match
  • Shots allowed12.8 shots/match
  • Shots on target5.23 shots/match
  • Shots on target allowed3.77 shots/match
  • Possession56.1%
  • Corners5.81 corners/match
  • Corners allowed4.96 corners/match
  • Fouls10.6 fouls/match
  • Clean-sheet frequency25%
  • Scoring frequency88%

How competition percentiles work

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade D · UnavailableUnavailable — unavailable
Season samples1 / 1home / away teams
Recent samples1 / 1last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWatfordSouthampton
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headWatford — Southampton
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this